A close look, however, suggests that all three are folklore.  As we see it, the inventory cycle has a long way to run and will contribute to grow through 2011.  Second, the credit crunch is abating, while consumers are concurrently and aggressively deleveraging and repairing their balance sheets.  The latter process could reach a sustainable equilibrium by 2011.  Last, same-store sales comparisons are relevant for stock pickers but don't affect published retail sales and consumer-spending data.  Those data are famously subject to measurement error and revisions, but the results so far are consistent with our view that a modest consumer recovery is underway.  Details for all three myths follow. 

The inventory cycle has a long way to run.  US...