The recent rally is impressive but historically not surprising. The Fed's money printing continues, and investor risk-taking has resumed. This all calls for caution.

Given the recent market gyrations and the sloppy and weak trading, I thought I'd home in on the action and examine what clues, if any, that action might afford.

How long can the market rally last?

Thus I think there's a decent probability that we'll go into some sort of trading range for a while. Whether that turns out to be for a long while or becomes the start of a top, I don't know.

If we do slip into a trading range, I would be somewhat shocked if that resolved itself with a big move to the upside, though given the money printing that continues, I wouldn't rule out that possibility. Consequently,...