November 5, 2009

China's Inflation Outlook in 2010

Qing Wang, Morgan Stanley

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On the week, benchmark Treasury yields fell 6-15bp and the curve steepened, which was a pain trade, as it seems that many investors had been moving into flatteners recently, a move that probably makes sense going into the FOMC meeting but didn't work in the most recent week. The old 2-year yield fell 15bp to 0.85%, 3-year 15bp to 1.41%, old 5-year 14bp to 2.29%, old 7-year 12bp to 2.96%, 10-year 9bp to 3.39%, and 30-year 6bp to 4.23%. Bill supply shrank much in October, which intensified the squeeze at the front end, with the 4-week yield down 2bp to 0.01% and 3-month 1bp to 0.05%. As a result of the paydown of almost all the SFP cash management bills, total bills outstanding fell by US$134 billion in October. Even with this big decline, however, it's hard to understand how bills can...

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