First things first: I was favorably surprised by the new Obama jobs plan, which is significantly bolder and better than I expected. Itâ??s not nearly as bold as the plan Iâ??d want in an ideal world. But if it actually became law, it would probably make a significant dent in unemployment.
Paul Krugman
Of course, it isnâ??t likely to become law, thanks to G.O.P. opposition. Nor is anything else likely to happen that will do much to help the 14 million Americans out of work. And that is both a tragedy and an outrage.
Before I get to the Obama plan, let me talk about the other important economic speech of the week, which was given by Charles Evans, the president of the Federal Reserve of Chicago. Mr. Evans said, forthrightly, what some of us have been hoping to hear from Fed officials for years now.
As Mr. Evans pointed out, the Fed, both as a matter of law and as a matter of social responsibility, should try to keep both inflation and unemployment low â?? and while inflation seems likely to stay near or below the Fedâ??s target of around 2 percent, unemployment remains extremely high.
So how should the Fed be reacting? Mr. Evans: â??Imagine that inflation was running at 5 percent against our inflation objective of 2 percent. Is there a doubt that any central banker worth their salt would be reacting strongly to fight this high inflation rate? No, there isnâ??t any doubt. They would be acting as if their hair was on fire. We should be similarly energized about improving conditions in the labor market.â?
But the Fedâ??s hair is manifestly not on fire, nor do most politicians seem to see any urgency about the situation. These days, the best â?? or at any rate the alleged wise men and women who are supposed to be looking after the nationâ??s welfare â?? lack all conviction, while the worst, as represented by much of the G.O.P., are filled with a passionate intensity. So the unemployed are being abandoned.
O.K., about the Obama plan: It calls for about $200 billion in new spending â?? much of it on things we need in any case, like school repair, transportation networks, and avoiding teacher layoffs â?? and $240 billion in tax cuts. That may sound like a lot, but it actually isnâ??t. The lingering effects of the housing bust and the overhang of household debt from the bubble years are creating a roughly $1 trillion per year hole in the U.S. economy, and this plan â?? which wouldnâ??t deliver all its benefits in the first year â?? would fill only part of that hole. And itâ??s unclear, in particular, how effective the tax cuts would be at boosting spending.
Still, the plan would be a lot better than nothing, and some of its measures, which are specifically aimed at providing incentives for hiring, might produce relatively a large employment bang for the buck. As I said, itâ??s much bolder and better than I expected. President Obamaâ??s hair may not be on fire, but itâ??s definitely smoking; clearly and gratifyingly, he does grasp how desperate the jobs situation is.
But his plan isnâ??t likely to become law, thanks to Republican opposition. And itâ??s worth noting just how much that opposition has hardened over time, even as the plight of the unemployed has worsened.
In early 2009, as the new Obama administration tried to come to grips with the crisis it inherited, you heard two main lines from critics on the right. First, they argued that we should rely on monetary policy rather than fiscal policy â?? that is, that the job of fighting unemployment should be left to the Fed. Second, they argued that fiscal actions should take the form of tax cuts rather than temporary spending.
Now, however, leading Republicans are against tax cuts â?? at least if they benefit working Americans rather than rich people and corporations.
And theyâ??re against monetary policy, too. In Wednesday nightâ??s Republican presidential debate, Mitt Romney declared that he would seek a replacement for Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, essentially because Mr. Bernanke has tried to do something (though not enough) about unemployment. And that makes Mr. Romney a moderate by G.O.P. standards, since Rick Perry, his main rival for the presidential nomination, has suggested that Mr. Bernanke should be treated â??pretty ugly.â?
So, at this point, leading Republicans are basically against anything that might help the unemployed. Yes, Mr. Romney has issued a glossy, well-produced â??jobs plan,â? but it might best be described as 59 bullet points with nothing there â?? and certainly nothing to justify his assertion, bordering on megalomania, that he would create no fewer than 11 million jobs in four years.
The good news in all this is that by going bigger and bolder than expected, Mr. Obama may finally have set the stage for a political debate about job creation. For, in the end, nothing will be done until the American people demand action.
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