12/7/2011 3:41 PM ET
Even if the euro is somehow salvaged, Europe's economic bloc is downward-bound. And with the world's finances now so intertwined, that fall will be also felt here and elsewhere.
If you're like most Americans, you're probably sick of hearing about the crisis in Europe. The bailouts. The political turmoil. The frantic meetings. The credit downgrades. And now there is talk of a deep new recession across the pond as the eurozone moves closer to splintering.
People want to hear instead about the issues that matter to them. What about the job market? Why are home prices falling again? Will Congress keep unemployment benefits and tax cuts going? And when, if ever, will I get a raise?
But here's the thing: Europe matters. And it doesn't matter just to us; it matters to the rest of the world, too. Reverberations are being felt everywhere. After all, the eurozone is the largest economic entity on Earth.
Anthony Mirhaydari
Europe is China's largest trading partner. With Europe heading into recession, the latest factory-activity report out of China pointed to the largest drop since the depths of the recession in early 2009.
Brazil, whose commodities fuel China's production lines, saw its economy grind to a halt in the third quarter -- a sharp retreat from the 7.5% annual growth seen last year.
Europe is also a major U.S. trading partner and the destination for some $240 billion in goods and services at a time when exporting is one of the few areas of strength. And more importantly, while the U.S. banking system has relatively little exposure to the debt of countries like Greece and Ireland, it maintains significant exposure to Europe's banks -- which in turn maintain huge exposures to those troubled countries.
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With that in mind, here's why the eurozone's days are numbered, and why it matters to all of us:
Dead currency walkingA lot has happened since the eurozone debt crisis first ignited in the spring of 2010 (and since people first started worrying about government debt because of difficulties in Dubai in late 2009) -- far too much to review it all here.
But at the most fundamental level, the current crisis stems from structural problems in the currency union that led to excessive borrowing and a lack of economic reforms:
A single, shared interest rate for both misers like Germany and spendthrifts like Greece.A lack of fiscal discipline and enforcement.The inability of the European Central Bank to regulate local banking standards.(These problems were identified but ignored when the euro was born back in the early 1990s on Faustian hopes of a united Europe.)
As the situation snowballed on worsening budget balances in the "PIIGS" (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) countries and financial sector turbulence, Germany's prescription as Europe's creditor was straight out of the playbook responsible for the 1937 downturn that prolonged the Great Depression: tax hikes, spending cuts and deep fiscal austerity at a time of economic vulnerability.
Combined with ongoing joblessness and loss of wealth (Greece is entering its fourth calendar year of recession, while Spain's unemployment rate is approaching 23%), the pain caused by this approach has fueled violent protests and political instability. New governments have been installed across the PIIGS nations as voters rage against their leaders. Desperate to keep popular anger from derailing austerity efforts, unelected technocrats have taken power in Rome and Athens.
Latest news on the eurozone mess
The situation has deteriorated relentlessly as politicians tiptoe around angry constituents and a bond market that is losing patience.
An agreement in July to expand Europe's bailout fund barely passed parliamentary votes in the 17 eurozone countries -- and a failure by the Slovakian government to placate nationalists nearly upended the process. An agreement in October -- to expand Europe's bailout fund with private funding and cut Greece's debt load by 50% via voluntary debt write-downs -- was undone by a move to put the plan to a popular vote in Greece and by the increasing inability of Europe to finance itself.
Now the endgame approaches.
Continued: The final actSingle page123Next >RELATED ARTICLESInvesting: Stock market, money & financial investment advice - MSN ...Currency Conversion Calculator - MSN MoneyChina faces its own debt bomb - 1 - how to invest - MSN MoneyChina faces its own debt bomb - 2 - how to invest - MSN MoneyCan China save us from recession? - 1 - how to invest - MSN MoneyWhat Wall St. protesters have right - 1 - economy & income - MSN MoneyVIDEO ON MSN MONEY/* /**/ var scp_UserRating=-1; down_arrow_hover= new Image(); down_arrow_hover.src = 'http://blu.stc.s-msn.com/br/scp/css/15/decoration/toolbar/rating/down_hover.gif'; down_arrow_normal= new Image(); down_arrow_normal.src = 'http://blu.stc.s-msn.com/br/scp/css/15/decoration/toolbar/rating/down_normal.gif'; up_arrow_hover= new Image(); up_arrow_hover.src = 'http://blu.stc.s-msn.com/br/scp/css/15/decoration/toolbar/rating/up_hover.gif'; up_arrow_normal= new Image(); up_arrow_normal.src = 'http://blu.stc.s-msn.com/br/scp/css/15/decoration/toolbar/rating/up_normal.gif'; var scp_thankyoutext = 'Thank you!'; var scp_thankyoualttext = 'You have voted on this'; var scp_votestext = '{0} votes'; var scp_votescount = 36; var scp_errmsg = 'Errors occured while saving your rating. 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0 0ReportSpamFarmkid138 minutes ago
If it is "dooms day" for Europe, then there will eventually be another war over there. It looks rather like it did between WWI and WWII. Civil unrest, civil war, revolutionary war, etc., something will spark it. It only took an assassination of an Archduke to start WWI and economic collapse to start WWII...
Cheerful aren't I?
2 0ReportSpamJust Payin My Bills51 minutes agoWhat's the big deal? European nation goes broke - who cares?? Oh it will hurt investor confidence Too bad - let them buy US Treasury 30 year notes at 1.1%. Good for us..
Oh it will hurt US Banks. Too bad, if the top 3 US banks failed, what makes you think 50 regional sized banks wouldn't spring up to take their place.
This is all about trying to protect the investor at the expense of the worker. Nobody's talking about writing down the debt for the consumer who is overextended - why because only the little guy gets hurt. Some big money investor about to lose 50M on Eurobonds and then we have a crisis.
F*k 'em. Let them all go bankrupt.
6 1ReportSpamPam Payne (Dolly Lama) 1 hour agoWow , bad dream and when will we wake up? Except it is not a dream it is real. And I very much agree with the direction the article is going. I have not wanted to face it, nor does anyone else. But we must be ready as we can for the worst. If it does not happen we are still better off. The players are on stage and now it is a matter for the acts to follow. Some small changes in the script but for the most part it has been written. And written in history with fiat monies. How it will affect us and not just us, but the entire world. Dominoes, comes to my mind. This can be as bad as an asteroid except a slower type of affect on people. I don't know about you but I am going to sit down and do some planning. And it will be far beyond any austerity measure forced. I am a leader of my family. Extended and close. It is time to send up the flairs. A warning not headed is punishment enough. Good luck everyone!! 6 0ReportSpamTL3161 hour agoThis is what happens when you expect the strong to carry the weak. The strong are overburdened, while the weak grow lazier and more entitled.Frankly I don't see the advantage for Germany to stick around and finance this idiocy. 10 1ReportSpamJohnnnyBeGood1 hour agoThis guy Aanthony Mirhaydari, changes his mind like a hooker in the red district changes her panties...tomorrows headline will be NEW GAME everything has changed the Euro bought a big bandage and everything is AAA again so what ever money one has left put it back in the marker the DOW is going to 15000....not the 7000 it should be today..YES the market should be at 7000 right now and gold at 2800 and silver at 90. 4 9ReportSpamgilmerejl2 hours agoAs long as the stock market and bond market is seen as a casino and people "play the market" with short term trading or computer trading rather than using stock as a means of capitalizing true production growth, we will have trouble. Trillions of dollars are made and lost with nothing produced and no one employed. Let's return to the tax code of the '50s and '60s (without the wars and the arms race) and see what can be done as workers are once more rewarded for labor and production is seen as a positive, not just maximizing personal wealth at the cost of everything else.
28 1ReportSpamFatuus Secundus3 hours agoHow exactly is it 'wake up' time when one is on the Glenn Beck site? Wouldn't that be a sure sign the nightmare is still continuing? 0 9ReportSpamBull Rider3 hours ago I see " Hiring " signs everywhereWe had 1...That's "ONE" help wanted ad in the local paper today, and it was for a line cook."Food for recreation" it appears, still is high on the recreation scale for people who are bored to death with real life. 2 1ReportSpamJJ3 hours agoI wish California had it's own currency called the Cali or whatever so we could drop that piece of crap. 18 11ReportSpamMJC20083 hours ago
Europe has its challenges, one of its biggest is their ability to unite. It is tough to unite when there are different cultures and languages.
However, I believe they see the advantages the USA has because we are united. With that said, it will be the USA that leads the world out of slow growth. It will begin with innovation, manufacturing, mining and farming. We just need certainty brought back to the market place and the money will flow.
Stay positivie and contribute where you can!
12 6ReportSpamLukki4 hours agoFYI....... I see " Hiring " signs everywhere !! The employers tell me that nobody is applying because of Free Government Money ( Unemployment ) ?? And the few who are applying are not qualified for the jobs they are applying for ?? Take away " Unemployment Benefits " after 12 weeks , and people will start applying !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Also, send all the " Illegal Immigrants " ( 12 M ) home, and even more jobs will open up !!! Also, People , STAY IN SCHOOL !!!
20 30ReportSpamme21594 hours agoAlthough I agree with the writer 100%, I think he was being too timid. The worse they could announced on Friday December 9th is a new and improved program that will solve everything. Hopefully, they are not that stupid. Investors overlooked too much in the past and are loath to repeat that painful and expensive lesson. They will see through any proposal that doesn't pass the smell test and punish those it thinks are trying to pull a fast one again. As the writer pointed out, there is little or nothing they can do to solve this problem, so prepare to ride it out over the next five years. 7 2ReportSpamTrucker Mark4 hours agoIsn't it funny? Anthony's Eurozone scenario is following virtually the same path as Richard Heinberg's forecast in his new book, The End of Growth, which was just printed last Summer! I think that the book should be required reading. Here is a link to chapter summaries of the book if anyone is interested:postcarbon.org/end-of-growth-chapters/ 8 6ReportSpamIrishbloody4 hours agoTomorrow, or maybe next week, Anthony will say: Everything is fine now, time to buy!! 17 4ReportSpamBull Rider4 hours agoWhat you want to do is head over to Glenn Becks site, TheBlaze.com and check out the video with GB and Jim Rogers about the euro....HELLLLLLLLO! It's wake up time. 14 22ReportSpamAdd a commentReportPlease help us to maintain a healthy and vibrant community by reporting any illegal or inappropriate behavior. If you believe a message violates theCode of Conductplease use this form to notify the moderators. They will investigate your report and take appropriate action. 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