February 9, 2012

A World Flying Blind: Economic Outlook Still Dire

Andy Xie, Caixin

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Recently, stock markets around the world have performed remarkably well. This may even continue for a few months. The U.S. Federal Reserve's promise to hold interest rates near zero until 2014 and signal of a third round of quantitative soon, combined with an improving U.S. labor market, have emboldened risk-takers. Financial markets are seeing more risk-on trade.

However, the fundamentals for the global economy remain dire. The West is mired in debt troubles, declining competitiveness and unsustainable social overheads. The East is struggling to build up robust consumer demand to balance its manufacturing prowess. So far, world leaders have used liquidity and fiscal measures to prop up demand without addressing structural...

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