Sex, Money and Largesse: The Hidden Depression
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Behind the mainstream media's attention to the daily economic numbers, there is a hidden economic depression running along the underbelly of the country. High levels of unemployment have kept pressures on wages even as work hours have lengthened. This, of course, is assuming full-time employment. In reality many individuals are working but either part-time at one or more jobs to make ends meet or working full-time as temporary hires at reduced wage levels. The declines in real income are evident. The burgeoning labor pool and demand for work is suppressing wages as companies opt for increasd productivity and streamlined employment to protect corporate profit margins. However, as the cost of living is affected by the rising food, energy and healthcare prices without a compensatory increase in incomes, more families are forced to turn to assistance in order to survive.
For a large portion of America the issue of unemployment and underemployment remains an everyday concern. Without government largesse many individuals would literally be living on the street. The chart shows all the government "welfare" programs and current levels to date. The black line represents the sum of the underlying sub-components. While unemployment insurance has tapered off after its sharp rise following the financial crisis, Social Security, Medicaid, Veterans' benefits and other social benefits have continued to rise. The government "safety net" is already under tremendous strain as the number of "workers" supporting the system has fallen markedly over the last 30 years. With more than 78 million "baby boomers" rolling into retirement the Social Security Administration has already warned they will begin paying out more than they take in by 2017 and will be insolvent not long thereafter without real reforms to the system.
For the average person these social benefits, however, are critical to their survival as they make up more than 22.5% of real disposable personal incomes. With over 1/5 of incomes dependent on government transfers it is not surprising that the economy continues to struggle as recycled tax dollars used for consumption purposes have virtually no impact on the overall economy.
More disturbing is that this huge increase in demand on "welfare" support in its various forms does not include the more than 46 million Americans who are dependent on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), or more affectionately known as "food stamps." Without this assistance the basic needs of survival for many families cannot be met. Yes, we all hear of the occasional lottery winner who is also living on "food stamps" but the reality is that there is a large and growing population that would not eat without the program. Despite commentary from the Department of Agriculture that says "obviously, it's [the food stamp program] putting people to work. If people are able to buy a little more in the grocery store, someone has to stock it, package it, shelve it, process it, ship it. All of those are jobs," the reality is that recycled tax dollars have been proven to generate little or no economic growth, which is evident from recent GDP data. Astoundingly, the total benefits in 2011 rose above $71 Billion, which was a 107% increase from 2008. Yet we are told the economy is improving?
The problem with dependency on nutritional assistance as well as other forms of support is that it leads to decreased productivity over time. Yes, on an immediate basis, individuals are able to buy the necessities of life, but long-term dependency reduces their ability to produce at higher levels in the future as long-term unemployment leads to degradation of job skills. As consumption is inhibited due to lack of productivity, increased dependency leads to lower standards of living.
As the ability to source income from traditional support programs becomes limited or exhausted, individuals can become very creative. Two of the most interesting areas that have been tapped to support basic consumption needs since the beginning of the "great recession" are student loans and disability insurance.
The number of individuals claiming disability has surged to the highest levels on record since beginning of the last recession. What is most notable, however, is when the surge of individuals claiming disability began - exactly two years from the beginning of the financial crisis. This is when the 2 years of extended unemployment insurance began to run out. Well, it is either that, or the work place has become extremely hazardous over the last couple of years. Today, more than 28 million Americans who are of working age have a disability - a level higher than at any other time in recorded history.
However, if you cannot claim disability, why not just say you are going back to school. Student loans have been hitting the mainstream media lately as the current administration debates the merits of lowering interest rates and forgiving student loan debt. We are told that we should pity the youth of America who are graduating college but so indebted that they cannot service their debt or have a fair start at life. However, forgiving student loan debt when it wasn't used for education, but a new iPad instead, is another issue. The chart shows only the federal student loan program, which has surged 400% since the end of the last recession and is now the federal government's largest financial asset comprising 31% of its balance sheet. However, in reality, student loan debt in total, which including private label loan programs, has now reached $1 trillion. Either I am correct about the real uses of student loan debt, or, we are about to embark upon the great educational renaissance.
The problem for American families today, despite media commentary to the contrary, is simply the inability to maintain their current standard of living. When income remains stagnant or falls, due to job loss or reduction in pay, the impact on the budget at home is significant, especially when there are already very low saving rates and the inability to access a tight credit market. The recent surge in consumer debt, with little relative increase in overall personal consumption expenditures, shows this to be the case. For Main Street the economy remains mired at sub-par growth rates three years into a post-recessionary environment.
These financial strains are pervasive and continue to weigh on families and their relationships. While it is true that "money can't buy happiness", try asking a couple who are living on food stamps and working two part-time jobs just to "get by" about how "happy" they are. Even as the media trumpets that the Fed has saved the economy from a "depression," it might just be a statistical victory at best. The government may say this is not the 1930's, when bread lines formed outside the corner soup kitchen. However, for many American's the only difference is that they are lining up at the mailbox and online instead.
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