Fed Is Tightening, Whether or Not It Wants To

Fed Is Tightening, Whether or Not It Wants To
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The Federal Open Market Committee, the group of central bankers that sets U.S. monetary policy, will meet next week. The members will have to consider the possibility that in trying to clarify their "exit strategy" from quantitative easing and zero interest rates, they've tightened policy more than they intend.

Monetary conditions are certainly tightening. The accompanying graph depicts the market's expectation of the federal funds rate, the baseline short-term interest rate the Fed targets, from now to 2016. It shows that expected rates have risen sharply over the last month. (Expected rates hadn't moved much before that this year.)

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