Each year, I put my head on the chopping block and publish a 30-year forecast for global stock and bond market returns. This forecast is used to create long-term asset allocation strategies for our clients.
It's a terribly imprecise exercise because no one can know how financial markets will perform in the future. There are just too many variables and too many unknowns. Yet here it is. So why do I risk professional suicide each year with an expected return forecast that's bound to be wrong? I do it because it's necessary.
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