Will Donald Trump Win In 2020? Look to the Mortgage Market

“It's the mortgage market, stupid.” It may not be catchy, but new research shows that it is true.  

It is often said that Americans vote with their wallets, and there is a large literature showing that voters react to ups and downs in the economy. But we have a very limited understanding of what particular economic phenomena matter most at the polls, and it is not clear why they matter.

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