Free Market Forces Will Win in the End

By Jim Lacamp

There's been an increasing litany of headlines across the globe on bubbles, bursts, pinball ricochets of global debt crises, debt ceiling and austerity debates. This rising tide of market tension includes central bank/IMF/Euro moves, head fakes and hurried meetings, Fed pronouncement-driven market swings, Arab Spring, and, well, I could go on, but you've seen the papers. This is the customary daily dose of headlines on both the front-page and the business sections. In other words, business, markets, and economies are all about governments, bankers, policy and mostly the unintended consequences they create that wreak havoc on free market mechanisms.

To a large degree, governments and policymakers have gotten what they want: control. They have brought free market mechanisms to their knees, to the point of submission, almost to the point of being unrecognizable. Free markets, particularly in developed nations, are no longer free. As the Egyptians, Libyans and other subjects of suppression have shown, breaking free from these chains often causes violent, volatile reactions.

Sometimes it requires a volcano to light a match.

George Orwell and Franz Kafka could scarcely have imagined many of these recent events and governmental action and inaction. Rules, treaties and laws are now tossed aside with alarming alacrity. Discipline? It has given way to euphemisms, semantics, legislative parlor tricks and recalculations. Greece doesn't hit their mandated targets? Give the money anyway!

This is nothing new. Policymakers have been out of touch with free market forces for a long time. But the troubling thing today is that markets are more hinged onto policy than ever before. Take a look at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They have squeezed free market forces from the housing market. Then ask yourself: How's the U.S. housing market doing?

Look no further than the US stock market. The Fed has created a junkie. Get this: There's an over 85% correlation between US stocks and quantitative easing programs. Unbelievable. The recent market reaction to Ben Bernanke utterances illustrate just how significant a stronghold Fed policy now has on stocks. All this despite the fact that Bernanke has been consistently dead wrong about the direction of the economy and that QE2 hurt more than helped our recovery. Incidentally, those higher stock prices? They were more than offset for most Americans by significantly higher food and fuel costs.

So what exactly are our elected officials doing down in Washington while skittish markets respond negatively to the ongoing debt ceiling debate? Sweating and fretting about the 2012 elections of course! For these guys, it's still all about staying in power. One scratches their head in total disbelief how so much power continues to be entrusted to so few, that do so much damage on a consistent basis.

The big enabler here though is a much bigger issue. It's our currency system. When you can print money, you don't have to balance trade. It gives policymakers way too much room to tinker with the economy in order to retain their power. Look, when you don't balance trade, and can print money, it gives license to simply take on more debt to allow continued trade. This allows China to build up huge sovereign wealth pools, and to buy commodity resources around the world, rather than balance trade.

Many of America's politicians, still drunken on ill-advised dogma that Keynesian spending can solve our problems, continue to contrive New Deal-type schemes that ultimately leave more debt and crowd out the private sector and again, free market forces.

Only now, as debt problems explode around the globe and bond markets riot in Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal and Ireland and politicians wrangle over debt ceiling debates that threaten a default, only now are some policymakers talking about balancing trade or a mechanism that would balance trade and some, including Chinese officials are talking about a gold standard. Could it be that bond riots and market reactions are finally forcing the hand of policymakers? If this is the case, we could be witnessing the genesis of the inevitable: the triumph of free markets.

Following the great recession, many wonder how the economy is growing without jobs, how corporate earnings are growing with an over-indebted and underemployed consumer base, and why the stock market has doggedly hung in there despite continued negative macro data. The answer is that free market forces aren't in shackles everywhere. They may in fact be starting to fight back.

Globalization and global trade has been the under-reported and dominant force behind corporate earnings, and as a result, the stock market and to a degree, the economy. We are trading with Russia, China, and Vietnam, not fighting them. Global trade has opened up scores of new market doors for US Companies and idea generators.

Yes, a weakened currency has helped boost our exports, but not nearly as much as globalization. This is a triumph of free markets. Chinese growth has exploded as they have let capitalism seep into their economy. Just imagine how much more room for growth they still have if they become less mercantile.

Beyond that, market forces are fighting back in other interesting ways. Bond markets and capital outflows in southern European countries are forcing the hand of stubborn policymakers and will likely force an inevitable default before all is said and done. Gold and silver markets are calling attention to all of this profligate spending. And, in a twist of irony, central banks are accumulating gold at a heightened pace. And yes, the monetary gold standard debate is resurfacing. China is now talking about that possibility, and others will surely follow suit.

Back before we had the Fed, before we went off the gold standard, our economy had shorter recessions and less debt. So we could be seeing at least the beginnings of these discussions if not implementations. Yet it could be something far more interesting is happening.

As policymakers continue to bungle along a poor path to discipline, channeling Barney Fife, maybe Dean Wormer, it may be that market participants are starting to decide that corporate CEOs are more trustworthy, or at least prudent than those who print gobs of money and then go out and spend twice that amount.

In fact, corporations and to a lesser degree, consumers, are actually starting to repair their balance sheet. Are we about to enter a new era where blue chip stocks are considered safer havens than government bonds? It is possible. And this would represent a true triumph of free market forces, as would trade balancing mechanisms.

We still have an overly repressed capital system in the US. There are still far too many regulations, taxes, a minimum-wage system that keeps too many out of work, an unwieldy and oppressive tax system, uncompetitive, sky-high corporate tax rates and again, too much debt. But as communist China, Russia and Vietnam, socialist Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal and authoritarian Middle Eastern and North African regimes are now discovering, free market forces offer the only sustainable true path to prosperity.

In the long run, we are not Keynesian and we are not all dead. Allowing free people to pursue what is economically best for them and their families is the only way that governments and their people can peacefully and prosperously co-exist. And thrive. Despite the worst efforts of policymakers, free market forces are still alive. They are starting to fight back. We can argue about how, we can argue about when, but we cannot argue about whether they will win in the end. They will win.

Jim Lacamp is a Senior Vice President and Portfolio Manager with MacroPortfolio Wealth Management with over $400 million under management. He also co-hosts the Money-Sense at the Opening Bell Radio show, Dallas-Fort Worth's longest running financial talkshow.

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