To Yearn for Manufacturing Jobs Is Like Pining for Reincarnation
President Trump has made it clear that manufacturing jobs matter a lot to him. He is committed to corralling as many as possible to the United States. There are only two problems: Many manufacturing jobs have already been eliminated by efficiencies or are on their way to being eliminated. And the jobs we will need to fill in the future do not depend on tougher national demands or deals. They depend on a constant modernizing economy, and a constant flow of people with the necessary skills to participate in it.
The jobs of the past are not part of our future. Indeed, they are not even part of the present. There was a time, not that long ago, when high school dropouts could walk into a factory and come away with a well-paid, secure job. By the early 1970s, one quarter of Americans worked in manufacturing, more than twice the proportion as today. What has turned that around is not a sudden flight of jobs to China or Mexico. In fact, when manufacturing began its steep climb down as a job provider, neither country was a manufacturing powerhouse. The countries at the manufacturing table were advanced economies in which workers were paid as much as they are in the United States. What happened to the jobs were technological improvements that allowed manufacturers to produce more stuff with fewer workers. Of course, that meant the workers had to be highly skilled.
As a consequence of technological advancement, overall employment in manufacturing stands at its lowest level since before World War II. Today, the jobs that are most vulnerable, according to data gathered by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, are those that pay reasonably well but require less than a tertiary education - such as assemblers, fabricators, and machinists.
Quite simply, there has been a shift from humans to robots and other technologies when it comes to manufacturing production. But people are still needed in a manufacturing industry in which production is dominated by robots and other forms of artificial intelligence. The jobs that will be most needed in the middle of the next decade will be in computers and electronics, electrical equipment and components, transportation and materials.
Some of the best jobs will be those that interact with robots — including designing, directing and repairing them. In a 2017 report, Manpower Group an UI Labs specified 165 roles that will define the digitally driven workforce of manufacturing. They include digital manufacturing analysts, whose task is to develop improvements in productivity and quality. Model-based systems engineers will be responsible for breaking complex manufacturing concepts into smaller chunks. Cyber security strategists help manufacturers prevent hacker attacks. Predictive maintenance systems specialists monitor the health of critical manufacturing assets and anticipate when they might fail. Digital factory automation engineers develop automation tools that improve manufacturing productivity and quality.
The digital economy will spawn many new kinds of jobs. But they will not go to countries that try to beggar their neighbor. Economies surrounded by walls soon become static and then stagnant, closing themselves off from new digital technologies and the people who can develop and manage them. Moreover, the walls meant to keep out competition also keep out inputs that the most advanced domestic producers need. Many of the highest-paying and most productive jobs depend heavily on the availability of imported materials, as autos depend on steel and aluminum. The Peterson Institute for International Economies has found that the more important a sector is to the U.S economy, and generally the more it pays, the higher the proportion of its components come from other countries. Creating well-paid jobs is not dependent on sealing off importers; in fact, it depends on them.
The manufacturing jobs that have disappeared over the past few decades are not coming back. In actuality, they no longer exist or soon won’t. Hoping to recreate them is like pinning your hopes on reincarnation. Those who are looking to a future in manufacturing must look to jobs that have recently been created or are in the process of being recreated - jobs that can reap the full advantages of new digital technologies.
Hockey great Wayne Gretzky once advised aspiring players not to skate to where the puck is, but where it is going to be. Similarly, it makes sense to look not for a job that is becoming redundant, but one that is becoming necessary.
