THE HOUSE has passed an $819 billion spending package. Soon the Senate will vote. Will government spending get the economy going or slow it down? How long will it take to have an impact? How many jobs will it create? Can we afford it?

You would think economists could answer these questions. Since at least the Great Depression, economists have theorized about what causes the economy to slow down or speed up. We've theorized about unemployment and inflation and whether they're connected. We've theorized about monetary policy, tax policy, and the role of government spending. And economists have tried to find evidence to settle these fundamental questions.

And yet there is little or no consensus for what we should do right now...  full article