The recent oil-price plunge again reminds us that markets are smarter than experts. It’s not that markets are never wrong; however, when they are, they correct themselves. In contrast when experts are wrong, they can stay wrong for an extended period—and ironically, continue to remain “experts.”
An Investopedia story in March captured the prevailing wisdom of experts in the U.S.-Iran conflict’s early days: Market watchers are increasingly pessimistic about a swift return to normal for oil markets…” The New York Times stated the world would “probably have to wait for weeks or longer to see meaningful improvement.”
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