Headline Index Rises to 45.6, Its Highest Since March, as the Six-Month Outlook Rebounds and Federal Policy Confidence Posts a Fourth Straight Gain; the Investor–Non-Investor Gap Widens to 23.6 Points, the Second-Widest on Record
Consumer sentiment improved modestly in September as the RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, the first monthly reading of U.S. consumer confidence, rose to 45.6 from 45.1 in August, a 0.5-point (1.1%) gain. The increase lifted the index to its highest level since March, but the gain was narrowly based: it came almost entirely from investors and higher-income households, while lower-income and non-investor Americans lost ground.
The index has now remained below the neutral 50 mark for thirteen consecutive months, keeping the nation in what we classify as the pessimism zone.
September's reading is 6.9% below the 308-month historical average of 49.0, indicating that even after the summer's improvement, economic optimism remains below its long-term norm.
Investor confidence surged to 61.5 from 55.7 in August, its highest reading since September 2025 and a third consecutive month above the neutral 50 mark, while non-investor optimism fell to 37.9 from 40.4. The confidence gap widened sharply from 15.3 to 23.6 points, the widest separation between the two groups since March 2023.
The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has a strong track record of anticipating the consumer confidence indicators later released by the University of Michigan and The Conference Board. From February 2001 to October 2023, TIPP released this index monthly in collaboration with its former sponsor and media partner, Investor's Business Daily.
RCM/TIPP surveyed 1,461 adults for the September index from August 25 to August 28. The online survey was conducted using TIPP's panel network. The margin of error is ±2.9 percentage points.
The index is measured on a scale from 0 to 100. Readings above 50 indicate optimism, while those below 50 signal pessimism. A score of 50 is neutral.
The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has three key components. In September, two of the three rose: the forward-looking Six-Month Outlook recovered much of the ground it lost last month, and confidence in federal economic policies advanced for a fourth straight month, while the Personal Financial Outlook eased slightly from August's high.
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook, which measures how consumers perceive the economy's prospects in the next six months, rose 3.5%, from 39.9 in August to 41.3 in September, recovering roughly two-thirds of the ground it gave up last month.
- The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months, declined 0.6%, from 53.0 in August to 52.7 in September, easing from last month's high but marking a 27th consecutive month above the neutral 50 line.
- Confidence in Federal Economic Policies, a proprietary RCM/TIPP measure of views on the effectiveness of government economic policies, rose 1.4%, from 42.3 in August to 42.9 in September, a fourth consecutive monthly gain and its highest reading since March.
RCM/TIPP also releases a companion measure, the Financial-Related Stress Index, the only monthly metric tracking Americans' financial stress. The index was unchanged at 64.7 in September, holding exactly at August's level. Beneath the flat headline, stress eased for 12 of the 21 demographic groups we track and rose for nine.
The higher the number, the more stress. Readings above 50 signal increased stress, while those below 50 indicate lower stress. A reading of 50 is considered neutral. For context, the last time the index posted below 50.0 was before the onset of the pandemic in February 2020, when it stood at 48.1.
The index has averaged 60.5 since December 2007. September's reading of 64.7 exceeds the long-term average by 6.9%, signaling that financial stress remains well above its historical norm even though it stopped climbing this month.
"The investor/non-investor gap is telling, and optimistically so. Confidence grows the more that Americans have a stake in abundant, largely American genius. It's a reminder that soaring wealth inequality doesn't sap American confidence; rather, it's one of its principal drivers,” said John Tamny, the editor of RealClearMarkets.
“September's headline gain conceals a widening divide,” said Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica. “The index rose half a point to 45.6, its best reading since March, and the forward-looking Six-Month Outlook recovered much of what it lost in August. But almost all of that improvement came from Americans who own stocks. Investor optimism jumped 5.8 points to 61.5, while non-investors fell to 37.9, opening a 23.6-point gap that is the widest we have recorded since March 2023. Households earning $75,000 or more moved up sharply; those earning under $30,000 moved down. Financial stress was unchanged at 64.7, well above its long-term norm. Rising markets are lifting the confidence of Americans who are invested in them, and leaving everyone else where they were.”
Economic Optimism Index Breakdown
This month, seven of the 21 demographic groups tracked by RCM/TIPP, including age, gender, and income, are in positive territory, with scores above 50 on the Economic Optimism Index. For comparison, there were five in August, seven in July, and two in June. Thirteen groups improved on the index, compared to eight in August, seventeen in July, and nine in June.
For the Six-Month Economic Outlook component, five of the 21 groups tracked by RCM/TIPP scored in optimistic territory, compared to one in August, three in July, and one in June. Economic Outlook sentiment improved for fifteen groups, compared to four in August, all 21 in July, and nine in June.
For the Personal Financial component, eleven of the 21 groups tracked by RCM/TIPP were optimistic, compared to thirteen in August, thirteen in July, and nine in June. Nine groups rose compared to ten in August, sixteen in July, and nine in June.
For the Federal Policies component, five of the 21 groups exceeded 50.0, compared to four in August, four in July, and two in June. Thirteen groups rose compared to eleven in August, fifteen in July, and nine in June.
About TechnoMetrica/TIPP
TIPP is the polling unit of TechnoMetrica, a nationally renowned survey research and market research firm dedicated to providing clients with expert data-driven analysis to facilitate informed decision-making in their businesses. The TIPP Poll is considered the gold standard survey, having the unique distinction of being the most accurate presidential poll in the past six election cycles. The tippinsights unit provides editorials and commentaries on national and international issues, often appearing on the RealClearPolitics website.
About RealClearMarkets
RealClearMarkets (RCM) is a one-stop shop for market-related news, analysis, and commentary. RealClearMarkets collects and publishes business, finance, and economic content from across the ideological spectrum. Site features include Market Data, Off the Street Blogs, Quotes, Research Reports, Videos, Topics, and Facts & Fallacies.
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