Recently, two perspectives on merit-based hirings were presented. Lydia Polgreen deplored the increasing attacks on the employment of Indian professionals who gained admissions to the U.S. on H1-B visas. Colin Wright claimed that U.S. firms have dramatically reduced the share of hires going to white men.
While Polgreen infers that H1-B holders are merit-based hires, this may not be the case. Though a modest share of hires does go to extremely skilled workers, many go to those who substitute for comparably-skilled U.S.-born workers. The New York Times reported that Disney replaced workers who, as part of their severance pay, had to train their H1-B replacements. Some H1-B workers are hired to fill less complicated jobs, like product testing, said Ronil Hira, an associate political science professor at Howard University. These roles don't require unique skills. She added:
“Big Tech companies, consulting firms like Cognizant, Tata and Infosys are also among the largest recipients of H-1B visas, providing tech companies with a steady pipeline of highly educated, well-trained employees willing to work on contract.”
This evidence suggests that many H1-B visas reduce desirable employment opportunities for qualified U.S.-born men. Which explains the Trump Administration raising the cost of each H1-B visa to $100,000 so that they will only be used for truly exceptional candidates.
Corporate affirmative action programs also restricted employment opportunities of white men. In 2021, 78 percent of new hires at NPR were people of color. White men in tenure-track humanities positions at Harvard fell from 39% in 2014 to 18% in 2023. White men working as entry-level TV writers in Hollywood dropped from 48% in 2011 to 12% in 2024.
These hiring practices are also reflected in the racial differential acceptance rates of students to medical school. They are much higher for black candidates than white or Asian candidates with similar credentials. For example, among those with relatively low grades and MCAT scores, 56% of black applicants but less than 10% of Asian and white applicants were accepted; among those with average grades and MCAT scores, less than 30% of Asian and white applicants were accepted compared to an 80% acceptance rate for black applicants.
Restricting H1-B visas and ending race-based affirmative action programs is consistent with seeking merit-based hirings for U.S. college graduates. However, the lack of merit-based hirings does not explain the steady decline in employment rates of men with less than a college degree. Among men at least 25 years old, the employment rate of those with high school degrees and no college and those with some college, respectively, declined from 73.1% and 77.1% in 1999 to 63.4% and 65.0% in 2024.
Thanks to Barack Obama’s relaxation of food stamp requirements, the number of able-bodied adults without dependents on the rolls tripled between 2007 and 2012, reaching the same number of single adults with dependent children. These patterns remained through 2023. Many also qualify for Medicaid. Thus, with government and family support, these idle men have been able to get by.
The problem is that once these men are away from paid employment for an extended period, many no longer possess the behavioral requirements necessary to sustain permanent employment. This is why when some states a decade ago began to enforce very modest work-related requirements on this group, half left the rolls.
This lack of appropriate behaviors helps explain why employers of semi-skilled workers, like Amazon distribution centers, often seek out immigrant workers. The controversy last year in Springfield (OH) focused on how a group of employers recruited Haitian immigrants from outside the state rather than seek local workers. Unlike many of the local young men, these immigrants were reliable: showing up for work every day, following orders, and working responsibly at their job. These immigrants may work for less, but it was their superior behavior that was crucial [editor’s emphasis].
Unfortunately, continuing to stress increasing the share of men in four-year colleges will only worsen the problem. A large share of boys has substandard 8th-grade reading and math skills. Given their weak skills, the highest-paid vocational occupations, like plumber and electricians, are beyond their reach. Instead, they unfortunately must be prepared for entry-level certificate programs as the necessary first step for future success. Only then can many of them gain the behavioral traits that will enable them to have productive lives, often by taking subsequent stackable certificates.
Sadly, a significant share of these weakly-prepared high school students will not choose or be successful in these entry-level vocational efforts. They will become part of the disconnected population: neither in school nor in paid employment. Many will gravitate to the street life; relying on illegal activities. While few will end up with outcomes like George Floyd or Eric Garner, the vast majority will live a bleak existence on society’s margins.
I have argued elsewhere, that a year or two in prison may be the best hope for those who have become part of the disconnected population and been convicted of a series of misdemeanor robberies or nonviolent felonies. Prisons certainly require the proper behavioral traits: getting used to a daily routine, following orders, and completing tasks. They also increasingly emphasize rehabilitation, with incentives to gain a high school equivalence degree and enter training programs.
While prison time and entry-level certificate programs may be depressing choices, they unfortunately are the best hope for many of today’s youth who have been dealt a bad hand.
