Jul 1, 2022
Flation, Flation, Flation
Inflation has peaked
Jun 28, 2022
Bond Losses - Yours & The Fed's - Are Temporary
Since they started raising rates late last year the Fed has $540B of unrealized losses. How problematic is this?
Jun 16, 2022
The Fed’s Policy Mistake has Been Made
A slowdown is all but certain. But does it turn into a recession? Does it turn into a deeper recession than expected? Does it spill over into credit markets and cause a debt...
Apr 22, 2022
Some Pleasant Arithmetic Behind Falling Prices
Lower prices today mean better returns in the future.
Apr 9, 2022
It's Clear That the Fed Has Made a Huge Monetary-Policy Error
The central bank took too long to raise interest rates. It's now playing catchup.
Apr 7, 2022
The Fed is About to Make a Huge Policy Error
I am increasingly concerned that the Fed is on the verge of a significant policy mistake (raising rates into an economic slowdown) after what is already a policy mistake (leaving...
Mar 28, 2022
Where Did This Idea Come From?
Who decided the 60/40 portfolio is optimal?
Mar 24, 2022
Is The Fed on the Verge of a Policy Mistake?
The Fed is behind the curve.
Mar 10, 2022
The Fed is in an Impossible Bind
The inflation story looked pretty clear to me before Russia invaded Ukraine.
Mar 3, 2022
Three Lessons From Russian's Market Collapse
Anything can happen.
Mar 1, 2022
Is It Time To Panic Yet?
Geopolitical conflicts are a lot more frequent than we might like to admit and the market always overcomes the short-term turmoil.
Feb 18, 2022
Is the Bond Bear Market Over?
The Total Bond Market is down 5.5% from its 2021 peak. The 10 year T-Note is down 10.7% from its 2020 high. But with the market pricing in 7 rate hikes and inflation showing...
Jan 28, 2022
What to do When the Market's Acting Crashy
Things to do to keep you from doing something stupid.
Jan 24, 2022
When Things Crash
Jeremy Grantham calls for a crash, bonds still diversify and we're very guilty of home bias.
Jan 12, 2022
Who Will Buy the Bonds?
Someone will buy bonds even if the Fed doesn't.
Jan 5, 2022
10 Questions for 2022
10 questions/answers provide you with some useful perspective on the year to come
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