When regulations make hiring employees more expensive, companies won't hire as many of them. It's a simple truth. But it is an inconvenient one for many who work in politics.
One such political figure is Jan Eberly, a Northwestern University economist who in May was appointed to be the Treasury Department's Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy. Her new job is to defend Obama administration policies - good or bad, right or wrong, and whether she agrees with them or not. Something to keep in mind as you ponder her arguments.
In a recent (and lengthy) post at the Treasury Department's Treasury Notes blog, Eberly quotes her boss, Timothy Geithner, as saying: "I don't think there's good evidence in support of the proposition that it's regulatory burden or uncertainty that's causing the economy to grow more slowly than any of us would like."
Well, then. About that burden: Over 30,000 new regulations hit the books during the Bush years. President Obama is just as active on a per-year basis. According to the Small Business Administration, small businesses pay more than $10,000 per employee per year just to comply with the 165,000-page Code of Federal Regulations. State and local rules cost about $970 billion extra. That's a lot of money - and a lot of regulation.
And about that uncertainty: There are more than 4,200 new rules at various stages of the federal regulatory pipeline right now. Companies, especially the ones too small to afford a Washington office, don't know what's coming next. No wonder they are skittish about making long-term investments, whether in employees or capital.
In the wake of Dodd-Frank, the health care bill, and the over 7,000 new regulations that passed in the administration's first two years, Eberly's job is to argue that, No, regulatory uncertainty doesn't cost jobs. She's got her work cut out for her, but she makes a brave attempt.
She does so on several fronts. One is a poll by the National Federation of Independent Businesses that finds that only 13.9 percent of businesses cite regulation as their largest problem. Compare this to 29.6 percent that cite poor sales as their biggest problem. Of course, Gallup released a poll this week in which 41 percent of small business owners say regulation is their biggest problem.
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