The Growth Messages for California That Succeeded On 11/4
While California's official November 4th election results won't be finalized until the end of the month, we can still gauge the success of certain economic competitiveness messages. With national Republicans failing to pick up any California Congressional seats, the national messaging largely proved ineffective, even with a seemingly Republican-friendly electorate. Instead, it would appear that despite the lackluster gubernatorial election, California issues reined. But that doesn't mean all of them were successful.
The Messages That Succeeded
Pension Reform: San Jose and San Diego are California's pension reform epicenters. In 2012, both cities overwhelmingly passed aggressive pension reforms that have since been challenged by labor unions. In the San Jose mayoral election, City Councilman and ally of outgoing reformer Mayor Chuck Reed, Sam Liccardo beat back Santa Clara County Supervisor and labor-backed Dave Cortese. Soon after declaring victory, Liccardo made clear he intends to push ahead with the 2012 reforms. In the three city council seats up for election, unions tried to flip control of the reform-friendly council, but fell short. Liccardo, like Reed before him, will find strong support for reform on the city council. In San Diego, the reform fight centered on the City Council District 6 race, where Chris Cate's victory over Carol Kim breaks the Democrats' 6-to-3 veto-proof majority on the council, thus giving Mayor Kevin Faulconer another important ally on the City Council. Labor was primed to quash the reforms for good in 2014. Instead, reformers prevailed.
Local Business Competitiveness: Without a compelling gubernatorial race, California's legislative races became increasingly localized. But while the specific issues varied, the overarching theme was business competitiveness. In AD 16, Catharine Baker won the PVI D+8 district - the first Republican to represent the Bay Area since 2008 - by focusing on the 2013 BART strike. Baker pushed hard on banning such strikes, while her opponent, Tim Sbranti, strongly supported labor. In AD 66, Republican David Hadley aggressively went after incumbent Democrat Al Muratsuchi on the news that Toyota planned to shut down their Torrance operations and move to Texas. By tapping into local frustrations and connecting the first-term incumbent to Sacramento's anti-business persona, Hadley flipped the PVI D+3 district. In AD 65, Young Kim defeated first-term incumbent, Democrat Sharon Quirk-Silva, by focusing on a Democratic legislative supermajority's agenda to tinker with Proposition 13, specifically easing the cap on business property taxes - known as split roll. And in SD 14, Republican Andy Vidak highlighted his efforts to bring water to the Central Valley, a crucial resource upon which the Central Valley's economy relies. His efforts allowed him to overcome a 20 point Republican-Democrat voter registration deficit to win re-election. These are but a few examples at how candidates began to connect the follies of Sacramento to localized experiences.
The Message That Floundered
K-12 Education Reform: California's lackluster K-12 education policy is a challenge pleading for attention, yet in 2014, reform messages fell flat. Republican gubernatorial candidate Neel Kashkari's message was simply, "Jobs and Education, That's It", but it failed to garner traction with donors, which meant he couldn't run a competitive campaign against the sitting Governor. Superintendent of Public Instruction candidate, Marshall Tuck, also ran on a message of reform against teachers' union-backed incumbent Tom Torlakson, yet despite strong fundraising and polling showing a close race, the California Teachers Union prevailed in electing the status quo. Both campaigns were aided by the June 2014, Los Angeles Superior Court Judge Rolf Treu ruling in the Vergara v. California case where Judge Treu noted "evidence has been elicited in this trial of the specific effect of grossly ineffective teachers on students. The evidence is compelling. Indeed, it shocks the conscience." The ruling struck down five California statutes on teacher dismissal, tenure, and seniority. Yet, it would appear that while the Vergara ruling gives weight to reformers' arguments, the issues still remain abstract to most voters requiring more careful communication.
On December 1st, approximately 37 new legislators (31% of the state legislature) will be sworn in under the Golden Dome of which three are Republicans who toppled incumbent Democrats - the first time since 1994 that a Democrat incumbent lost in California - and just four have held state elected office previously. If these new legislators are smart, they'll heed the successful economic competitiveness messages and strengthen the one that floundered.
