The Recovery's Slow Pace Is Frustrating Santa Claus

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During most of my career as a financial market economist, I made it a holiday tradition to write a "review and outlook" for the economy in the style of Clement Moore's classic, "A Visit from St. Nicholas." I have continued this tradition since I retired more two years ago. In this year's rendition, I encounter a Santa who seems more than a bit peeved by the frustratingly slow pace of economic recovery, which he attributes to overly intrusive and ineffectual policies.

‘Twas the night before Christmas, the year of fourteen
And signs of the season could be everywhere seen.
While store-Santas got wish lists from kids big and small
Their eager-to-please parents shopped all through the mall.

This shopping season was like none I remember
It's like Black Friday came in early November.
When, at last on this yule eve, my shopping was done
I took joy in the peace I'd so rightfully won.

In the hearth-fire's warmth, I sat comfy and cozy
As my eyelids grew heavy, my brain became dozy.
What happen'd next still remains a bit of a blur,
For there sat Santa in his red coat with white fur.

You might well imagine my shock and surprise,
But I was soon put at ease by his bright cheery eyes.
He spoke in voice like one I'd so long ago heard --
Like Milton Friedman spreading the free market word.

"I'm here, young man" (to Santa we're none of us old)
"For your help with a message both simple and bold."
More puzzled than ever, I begged "please tell me more!"
"Mind my words," he said. " ‘cause a bright future's in store."

My interest now keen I listened in wonder
To rhetorical questions he asked me to ponder.
"Why is it that, since the Great Recession began,
Has nothing been quite right over such a long span?"

"And why has the recov'ry now in its sixth year
Brought only slow growth and so little to cheer?"
"The answer," he said "is not such a great myst'ry
If you heed what I say we'll end this sad hist'ry."


"None of your models, be they ad hoc or formal,
Have yet told you quite why still nothing is normal."
"The answer," he said, "is simply plain common sense:
Good policy mustn't be based on phony pretense. "

"We know that markets work best when left on their own,
But too many regulations set the wrong tone."
"Laws like Dodd-Frank raise costs of banking compliance
While Obama Care rules just bring angry defiance. "

"And why should that pipeline face such endless delay
Such hemming and hawing impose costs we all pay."
"Those pending new rules that might the internet face
Will likely set back your innovation's fast pace. "

"We saw that extending jobless benefit pay
Failed in a basic but most predictable way."
"It paid those unemployed to stay idle for longer
But since that scheme ended, job markets are stronger."

"And when years of Fed easing begins to unwind
I worry ‘bout what new problems we then might find."
"Still, a normal bond market would be a good thing
And most seniors would welcome the income it'd bring."

"You see, good rules need more than noble intentions
Things must be thought through in all their dimensions,
Leaving little or nothing to chance or conjecture."
And with that Santa ended his free-market lecture.

Still Santa's last words ring true and finish this rhyme
"Trust me, things will get better in the fullness of time."
When in the wink of his eye, dear Santa was gone,
I rejoiced in the light of the Christmas Day dawn!

Merry Christmas! 

 

David Resler is the former Chief Economist at Nomura Securities.  A more extensive collection of his thoughts can be found at Top Dog Economics

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