California Can't Save the World From Climate Change

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Governor Jerry Brown celebrated last week when a recently published study - from researchers affiliated with Columbia University, the University of Idaho, and NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies - determined climate change is, in fact, a contributor to the state's drought. However, Brown's celebrations may be premature. The study determined that just 8% to 27% of the precipitation irregularity between 2012 and 2014 can be attributed to climate change and only 5% to 18% of the anomaly for 2014 - the only year, thus far, that researchers determined reached record-breaking conditions. Nevertheless, climate change impacts California's water supply, but interestingly Governor Brown's climate change-drought rhetoric doesn't match his actions.

If indeed climate change has been a major contributor to California's drought conditions, then the current conditions should be thought of as California's new normal when it comes to water availability. If that is the case, then California must comprehensively reform its water system. Instead, Sacramento's drought policy has been to conserve our way out of the dry-spell and hope-and-pray that the brewing El Niño conditions bring historically epic levels of rain and snowfall this winter to replenish the estimated 12 trillion gallons of water needed to reach pre-drought levels.

While conservation is a necessary component to deal with the drought, a conservation-only policy isn't sufficient under this new normal. Municipal water only accounts for between 10% and 14% of California's total water use. As such, a 25% reduction in municipal water use - the current statewide mandated conservation level - will only result in a mere 2.5% to 3.5% drop in California's total water consumption. If, as the study suggests, California's drought conditions are more likely than not to be the new normal, more action is absolutely required.

With Sierra Nevada snowfall occurring both less often and for a shorter period, California's current reliance on converting snowpack into developed water needs reassessment. Not only does California need to expand its water storage capacity in order to catch more of the snowpack that does exist, it also must find ways to develop other types of water sources, including rainfall and ocean water. Currently, California lets approximately 21 million acre-feet of water drain into the Pacific Ocean in an average year - or in other terms, about half of California's average annual use flows away untapped. Moreover, California's 800-plus miles of coastline present an opportunity to develop new sources of water. New technological advancements are making desalination both more cost effective and environmentally-friendly. Building out new water supplies, while infrastructure intensive, is a necessity under the new normal.

But infrastructure upgrades alone aren't sufficient either. California has to modernize its water markets. To do so, we should look to Australia for a water market reform blueprint. Australia first determined that water for environmental protection couldn't effectively be integrated into its overall system; thus, they completely removed it via an aggressive claw-back scheme to purchase, at market prices, water rights from existing holders to create separate water for environmental protection efforts. Then, Australia imposed a cap-and-trade water system with regulators determining the amount of available consumptive water for agriculture and municipal purposes each season. The rights-holders each have a securely specified share of the seasonally-adjusted water and have the capability to trade both their season's allotment and their entitlements. These reforms led to the development of independent and open trading platforms, and with laws mandating quick regulatory review, Australia's markets flourished. While reforms of this nature would create a massive political headache for those in Sacramento, under the new normal, it's less a matter of if these reforms are needed than when they will occur.

Jerry Brown's first two terms in office are best characterized by his "small is beautiful" motto. But California has never been able to restrain its growth - and that is for the better. Even if California were to pass its extensive anti-climate change agenda and if it actually works (both very big if's), California's impact on global climate change will be non-existent - in 2013, for example, California accounted for just 1% of global carbon emissions. It is time for California to adapt to the new normal before the new normal renders California inhospitable for future generations.

 

Carson Bruno is the assistant dean for admission and program relations at the Pepperdine School of Public Policy. Follow him on Twitter @CarsonJFBruno.

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