California Primaries Have Meaning Well Beyond the Golden State
Ballots are arriving in the mailboxes of California's vote-by-mail voters, which currently account for about 70% of primary voters. In California, Election Day is more accurately Election Month. And while the Presidential race is cooling off, rather than heating up as many expected, it doesn't mean there aren't exciting issues on this June's ballot.
The Tuesday before Election Day, the Hoover Institution will release the May-June 2016 issue of Eureka. In addition to including an analysis of the June 2016 Golden State Poll, this issue serves as a primer to California's new open primary system with commentary on 1) how Proposition 14 looks to be succeeding in moderating the Legislature, 2) why Proposition 14 is limiting voter choice, and 3) how technology can transform California's campaign disclosure laws.
Proposition 14 is Working...Sort Of: In 2010, the main argument in favor of Proposition 14's passage was its predicted moderating effect on the State Assembly and State Senate, putting an end to the endless partisan bickering. And while Proposition 14 - which created the top-two primary system - has only be in effect for two election cycles, initial evidence suggests moderation is happening, sort of. According to the Shor-McCarty Ideology data for state legislators, California's weight average State Legislature Ideology has moderated by about 10% since Proposition 14's implementation. However, most of the slight moderation has come just from California Democrats. In fact, the weighted average difference between the two parties' median ideologies has increased by a little over 1.5%. Proponents still argue, though, that as voters and candidates become more accustomed to the strategic voting incentives of Proposition 14, this minor moderation could become more aggressive.
Proposition 14 is Failing...Sort Of: Critics of Proposition 14 were worried that it would restrict voter choice. And it's easy to see why; Proposition 14 only allows the top two vote getters to advance to the November general election. With all candidates running on the same primary ballot, this puts minor party and independent candidates at a severe disadvantage. In fact, the critics' concerns were right. In the two elections prior to Proposition 14's implementation, on average, 80.5 minor party or independent candidates including write-ins appeared on the November general election ballot. In the two elections since Proposition 14, that number has fallen a whopping 91% to just 7.5, on average. Whereas minor party candidates and independents had easy access to the ballot via party primaries, petitions, or write-in campaigns, now these candidates have to battle both the Democrats and Republicans to gain access. All in all, it is rarely a good thing to limit the number of options voters have on their ballot.
Bringing Dark Money into the Light: Since the Citizens United Supreme Court decision, there has been a constant and growing discussion about money in politics. There seems to be a never-ending quest to pass new regulations to shine the light on political money; meanwhile, those wishing to fund political campaigns - including individuals, corporations, and unions - develop new techniques to shield the their identity. One of these techniques is to use organizations, such as nonprofits, that are not required to disclosure their donors, but allowed to participate in political activities. By some estimates, this type of political spending could top $1 billion this election cycle, up from just $5.2 million a decade ago. But advances in technology make campaign finance disclosure more efficient and more readily updatable. Online disclosure portals allow easier access for voter education, more easily allow regulators to track down transgressions, and help ensure campaign and organizational compliance. Plus, a virtual system can also more easily adapt to the changing behaviors of political actors. The Legislature is taking action to further bolster California's current online campaign finance platform, but if it fails to fully engage on this issue, proponents of disclosure are ready to take the issue directly to the voters.
Primaries tend to be the forgotten elections each election cycle. In the last three Presidential year primaries, only 40% of registered voters turned out to vote compared to 76% in the last three Presidential year general elections. But primaries set the stage for the general election and thus, are just as influential and important.
For a more in-depth look at these topics and an analysis on the June 2016 Golden State Poll, keep your eye out for the May-June 2016 issue of Eureka to be released on Tuesday, May 31.
