Self-Driving Cars: Some American Consumers Want Them Now
With the recent announcement by Mobileye, an Israeli supplier of autopilot component, that it will provide systems for fully autonomous cars to two undisclosed automobile manufacturers in 2019, the forecasts for driverless vehicles on American roads by 2030 could soon be a fading memory - or not. Rapid technological developments are now creating an imminent reality for the American automotive consumer. In 2018, five major auto manufacturers, including Volkswagen, BMW, and General Motors, will be offering cars that operate autonomously when driven on highways, with this most recent deal enabling this functionality in all driving conditions. In the U.S., Google announced its self-driving project in 2010; in 2012, Sergey Brin, Google's founder, announced that the Google Self-Driving Car would be available to the general public in 2017.
While the technology may be arriving sooner than anticipated, the most important question remains whether this technology will be commercially successful with the U.S. consumer. The University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute issued a report last week that provides some insight into answering this question. The report's authors, Brandon Schoettle and Michael Sivak, found that of 618 survey respondents, 46 percent prefer to retain full control while driving, with nearly 39 percent preferring a partially self-driving vehicle (with control by the driver available by choice). However, nearly 16 percent of survey respondents report that they would rather travel in a completely self-driving vehicle. Moreover, nearly two-thirds of respondents said they are moderately or very concerned about being a passenger in a completely self-driving vehicle, while about half of respondents have the same levels of concern regarding partially self-driving vehicles. Interestingly, 95 percent of all respondents want a steering wheel and gas and brake pedals available to control completely self-driving vehicles when desired.
While one-in-six American consumers having a preference for a completely self-driving vehicle may not seem like significant acceptance of this technology, one also needs to place this information in context. The cost of the first self-driving cars are estimated in the neighborhood of $100,000 each. This price tag places these vehicles in the high-end, luxury category of passenger vehicles. For auto manufacturers, this consumer acceptance figure appears to be a significant number of potential customers who would be interested in purchasing this pricey vehicle - especially in the first three-to-five years of the commercial manufacturing of self-driving vehicles. Furthermore, the fact that 95 percent of all survey respondents still want a steering wheel and gas and brake pedals in a self-driving vehicle is emblematic of the intense depth of resistance that American consumers have to giving up control of their automobiles to an artificial intelligence.
Regardless of the anticipated benefits that are anticipated to accrue from driverless vehicle implementation - and these include less time spent commuting, an increase in highway capacity, lower insurance premiums, and higher speed limits - there remain several outstanding technological issues yet to be resolved. For example, heavy rains have a tendency to interfere with laser sensors, while snowy roads can interfere with vehicle cameras. Moreover, driverless vehicle technology has difficulties interpreting human traffic signals.
Furthermore, in the public policy arena, the state-level regulation of driverless vehicles remains in its infancy. Since 2011, only four states (Nevada, Florida, California, and Michigan) and the District of Columbia have enacted legislation allowing testing of driverless cars on their roadways. Technological innovation is moving much faster than law and public policy can stay abreast. For driverless vehicles to become a commercial success, new state laws will need to be enacted in every state of America. This legislative challenge, however, remains a formidable barrier to commercialization success.
Unresolved public policy issues include serious software concerns, as to passenger and pedestrian safety and the threat of "hacking" into this latest technological example of the "Internet of Things." Another controversial issue revolves around privacy concerns; in this case, sharing data. What are the boundaries on data sharing? How are these safety and privacy issues best regulated? Finally, there are auto liability issues. In the case of an accident, is liability the responsibility of the automobile manufacturer or the car owner? Or, depending on the circumstances of the accident, would it need to be investigated as to responsibility, e.g., a technology failure due to manufacturers' fault or, for example, due to lack of normal maintenance on the part of the car owner, or some combination of shared responsibility.
With an anticipated unveiling in either 2017 (Google) or 2019 (automobile manufacturers), the window is closing fast on the potential technological reality of commercialized driverless vehicles. Yet, the combination of remaining technological barriers and an unresolved state and federal regulatory environment could likely keep wider use by interested consumers of driverless vehicles off America's roadways into the next decade.
