Turkey's 'Attempted Coup' and the Day After

Turkey's "attempted coup" which has claimed over 150 lives will inevitably be used as the pretext to accelerate the pursuit of President Erdogan's primary objective: securing the constitutional change that provides the presidency with near, if not complete, power.

Erdogan will also use this episode to neutralize and further contain whatever remains of his opposition - whether political, business, academic, media, dissidents and anyone he considers an obstacle to his pursuit of greater powers. In any ordinary democracy such elements would be considered legitimate opposition. For President Erdogan, they are "terrorists" and treated as enemies of the state.

However, Erdogan will leave some with the minimal amount of breathing space to claim that Turkey is a democracy. It largely remains so in name only. Anyone who transgresses Erdogan's arbitrary limits pays a price.

Erdogan's misguided foreign policy of recent years has largely led to Turkey's increasing diplomatic isolation. His current attempts to reboot it, through outreach and repairing ties with Israel and Russia, is largely driven by his desire for fewer problems abroad in order to consolidate greater power at home.

The "attempted coup", or whatever one may wish to call it, provides the ideal platform for this process.

Erdogan's conflict with Kurdish militants, increasing confrontation with ISIS, and continuing spillover from Syria will
continue to drain Turkey collectively as a nation. However. Erdogan will not allow these factors to interfere with his interests, ambitions and priorities to consolidate power in the presidency. In fact, he will continue to exploit these adversities to his personal advantage at any cost.