After President and Senate, California's Voters May Produce Nail-Biters
Vote-by-mail ballots are already hitting doorsteps triggering the start of Election Month in the nation's largest state. Some races won't be too hard to call: Clinton will win California's 55 Electoral College votes and a Democrat will be replacing retiring Barbara Boxer in the U.S. Senate. Other elections, however, could be nail-bitters, including whether Democrats win back supermajorities in either (or both) legislative chambers and which ballot propositions prevail or falter.
On November 1, the Hoover Institution will release its September-October issue of Eureka. This issue picks up where Issue 1604 left off, exploring more of the seventeen ballot measures Californians will be deciding the fate of. Specifically, the issue will discuss 1) the dangers of using the ballot box to alter Californians' behavior, 2) the need for legislative transparency, and 3) reforms to make California's over-sized ballots a bit more manageable.
Propositions 56, 61, & 64 - Altering Behavior, But Not in a Good Way: 2016's ballot features a few measures that strive to alter how Californians go about their daily lives. But the notorious inflexibility of California's initiative system makes altering behavior via the ballot box ripe for unintended negative consequences. Proposition 56 will allegedly decrease smoking rates in California, but it also dedicates the tobacco tax revenues go toward ongoing, permanent programs - despite a declining tax base. Unintended consequence: budget holes. Proposition 61 aims to reduce pharmaceutical prices by creating an artificial price ceiling on state-purchased drugs; but as history guarantees, the price ceiling will only increase demand for pharmaceuticals while simultaneously decreasing the supply for them. Unintended consequence: drug shortages. And finally, Proposition 64 seeks to eliminate the marijuana black market, but explicitly locks in the various tax rates and levels for legal marijuana, tying legislators' hands in effectively implementing recreational use. Unintended consequence: likely a cheaper black market product.
Proposition 54 - A Much Needed Disinfectant: Soon-to-be-former Assembly member Kirstin Olsen highlights, in her Eureka piece, the trials and tribulations she's experienced over her 3-term tenure in the State Assembly trying to get fellow legislators to accept more transparency in their legislative actions. She notes that in one instance, "an education bill was passed 15 minutes before legislators even received its language." Despite multiple attempts by Olsen to create a 72 hour rule - whereby bills could not be voted on until they have been posted online for at least 72 hours - Proposition 54 takes the decision out of the Democratic-controlled Legislature and into the voters' hands. As I stated in a previous RealClearMarkets piece on Proposition 54, "It is often said that sunshine is the best disinfectant and Proposition 54 will shine a bit more light on Sacramento giving legislators the time to actually read the laws they pass. To most, that's just common sense."
Some Ideas to Trim Down California's Ballot: Voters received a novella in their mail this election season. The voter guide clocked in at 224 pages weighing almost 10 ounces and about an inch thick. Ballots are also a hefty multiple pages, front and back. But it isn't just the size of the voter guides and ballots that are daunting, the decisions Californians have to make are quite consequential also. Californians are voting for the first non-incumbent U.S. Senator in over two decades and ballot measures range from legalizing weed to eliminating the death penalty to extending tax increases on California's wealthiest. How to vote on just one of these elections requires considerable thought, but Californians must make decisions on them all...and at the same time. It's time to trim down California's ballot. And as Hoover's Bill Whalen suggests, reforms don't need to be all that drastic. One suggestion is to change the proposition qualifying signature threshold from 5% (for statutes) and 8% (for constitutional amendments) of voters in the last gubernatorial election to 5% and 8% of either registered voters or eligible voters. Another is to again allow measures to appear on both the primary and general election ballots. And finally a third suggestion is create a 40-year sunset provision, after which an expiring measure would be automatically re-voted on.
This upcoming issue of Eureka will also feature an analysis of the new Golden State Poll, to be released on November 1 as well. This Poll examines the Presidential and U.S. Senate elections in California as well as a few of the highly contested ballot measures. It'll be a good last minute snapshot on where Californians stand as the 2016 general election comes to an end.
California's initiative system is a very powerful tool. And with great power comes great responsibility. But it's up to Californians, themselves, to wield that power responsibly and thoughtfully.
