Is Deleveraging Over Already?

By Joseph Calhoun

Well, according to this article at Bloomberg and the people they quote, yes:

Americans have made progress putting their finances in order and are ready to borrow again -- giving the world's largest economy another driver of spending and growth.

It is true that household debt service payments as a percent of disposable income are back to levels last seen in the early 80s:

 

But that is only part of the story and maybe not the most important one. Household debt as a % of GDP is still sitting just north of 80% and while that is down from near 100% at the peak it is a long way from the rouhgly 50% that prevailed in the early 80s. Low interest rates are obviously having a big impact on the ability of households to service their debt but rates will go up someday. 

The drop in debt at the household level has also been offset by the rise in government debt which has moved from around 60% of GDP to over 100% now. Corporations have also been leveraging up to pay dividends and buy back stock in the absence of sales growth. Overall, we haven't deleveraged at all. Total debt as a % of GDP has fallen only slightly since the crisis and sits at over 340%.  

I suppose Americans may be ready to go on another borrowing and spending binge but it surely isn't good news. Excess debt just makes us more vulnerable to the shocks that always come in an uncertain world. So put away the credit card and back away from the register.

Joseph Calhoun is CEO of Alhambra Investment Partners in Miami, Florida. He can be reached at jyc3@alhambrapartners.com

Advertisement: Partner Center
Sponsored Links
Related Articles
August 6, 2013
Why The Rich Are Different - Joseph Calhoun
August 1, 2013
A Modest Proposal - Joseph Calhoun
July 31, 2013
Return Of The Housing Bubble? - Joseph Calhoun
July 25, 2013
The Fed, Bubbles & Rube Goldberg - Joseph Calhoun

Recent Off The Street Blog

Off The Street Blog Archives

In The News