Roger Altman: "We're Not Going to Have a Recession"

Evercore Founder and Executive Chairman Roger Altman discusses the economy and risk of recession.

ROGER ALTMAN: Well, first of the all, the biggest issue I think overhanging markets at least if you're in New York, is the short-term and medium-term outlook for the U.S. economy. And the huge debate about whether we might have a recession or not have a recession. My own view is no, we're not going to have a recession. The U.S. economy remains and has been for some time solid--unexciting, but solid. You know, growing in the vicinity of two percent. People forget that the export share of the U.S. economy is only approximately 15 percent. Therefore, global weakness has a limited effect on us. I personally think the only threat, serious threat, to the U.S. economy, from the point of view of recession risk, is are the financial markets themselves and whether a spurt of volatility and financial market weakness could frighten consumers and frighten businesses and also generate a negative wealth, a series of negative wealth effects. My own view is the outlook for the U.S. is essentially fine.