This blog post originally appeared on RealMoney Silver on Oct. 28 at 10:06 a.m. EDT.
Here is the tape of the segment. Melissa started by referencing my generational bottom call back in March and asked where do we go from here? I said that I am sticking to the call. I don't believe that we will see 666 on the S&P 500 again in our lifetime or certainly not before Karen Finerman's two sets of twins give her grandchildren! We have achieved my precise S&P March objective of 1,050-1,070, which seemed an insanely ambitious target back then. (Not surprisingly, we recently overshot that target to the upside last week.) That said, I mentioned that I have gotten progressively more bearish in recent months. That view has been premature. So few people admit to being wrong, especially on CNBC, but I admitted that I had been wrong as I underestimated the appetite for risk and the market's animal spirits. With so much liquidity flowing into the capital markets, one could say that central bankers have put a curse on cash. I also underestimated the effect of cost-cutting on corporate margins, but I warned that this has the potential downside of creating an adverse structural change in employment that will weigh on future economic growth. Finally, I expressed that the fear of being in, so vivid seven months ago, has been replaced by the fear of being out today. The markets now see the certainty of good and steady corporate profits and self-sustaining growth. By contrast, I see far less certainty.Leave a comment
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