Kevin Warsh is chasing a historical mirage in his goal to untether the bond market from Fed communication. Read More
Why any strategy for reducing global imbalances must account for China’s exchange-rate management. Read More
It has become impossible to tell managers mesmerised by artificial intelligence that the tools are not, in fact, helpful. Employees are just... Read More
Extreme inequality is commonplace, so why do people accept it? Read More
Just as cities powered the first industrial revolution,they can deliver enormous growth and opportunity today by becoming engines of... Read More
And other dispatches from the culture wars Read More
He was saving the bond market. Or laying the groundwork for a new currency system. Or rescuing a major bank from imminent collapse. The... Read More
It’s rare for the United States to intervene in another country’s currency policy. It usually happens because there is a crisis.... Read More
Here is the headline story of the below-expectations July jobs report — and the one the usual naysayers in the financial commentariat... Read More
My parents’ Christmas-tree decorator predicted the so-called “housing bubble.” Or so some might think. While he moonlighted... Read More
Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) has joined Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) in proposing to eliminate the Social Security payroll tax cap. This... Read More
Social Security will still be an impressive retirement income program even if it “runs out of money” in 2032. Read More
I was just a young pup—cocky and ambitious. I had graduated from law school, passed the bar, and thought I was bulletproof. So I jumped... Read More
Kashkari goes full hawk… the ADP jobs report comes in soft… the FedWatch Tool says hike, but what will Warsh say?... why 3 analysts are... Read More
I. Introduction For decades, politicians of both parties have treated America's trade deficit as a national scoreboard—as though a... Read More
The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act targets Putin's shadow fleet, energy exports and sanctions evasion funding the Ukraine... Read More
In June, U.S. Customs paid importers more in tariff refunds than it collected in new tariff revenue. Roughly $49 billion went back out the... Read More
The work of writing an op-ed on regulatory matters usually proceeds thus: officials decide on a policy; the... Read More
The global warming scare is finally beginning to fade, but the misinformation keeps pouring out. Read More
While San Francisco’s tech community frets over AI-driven job displacement, we have more to fear from misguided government welfare policies. Read More
As Americans pay more at the pump, five of the top oil and gas companies have brought in $65.5 billion in profit so far this year—up 65... Read More
On July 22, the European Union fined Google 890 million euro (over 1 billion dollars!) for violating the Digital Markets Act... Read More
Historic talent is leaving DeepMind and Google, but that may ultimately *help* Google's Gemini efforts... Read More
Politicians can lecture people to lower their expectations, or they can stop pursuing inflationary policies that everything more expensive. Read More
'Why should I praise you for finally abandoning your childish nonsense?' Read More
Why are you spending three hours writing an essay when ChatGPT can do it in 15 seconds? Read More
Why you shouldn't use leverage when investing, even if you're young. Read More
A lot of people seem to be realizing that knowledge work is mostly pointless. AI might give us the pleasure of finding out what happens if an... Read More
The average mortgage payment on the typical new home sold in the U.S. rose above the upper limit of affordability for the typical American... Read More
Crowd behavior in prediction, betting and stock markets. Read More
We like to buy meritorious companies that meet our eight criteria for stock selection. Then we hold our winners to a fault, because most of... Read More
The S&P 500 was flat but the details were more interesting. Read More
NGDP is growing too fast. Read More
Gold and bitcoin have retreated from recent highs, but most major market indicators still sit above long-term averages. Read More
Markets remained mixed for a second month in July, based on a set of ETFs tracking the major asset classes. Read More
The 60/40 portfolio is broken because equity returns are driven by AI concentration rather than the business cycle, while bond returns are... Read More

Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) has joined Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) in proposing to eliminate the Social Security payroll tax cap. This would impose the 12.4 percent tax on all wages and self-em…... Read More
I. Introduction For decades, politicians of both parties have treated America's trade deficit as a national scoreboard—as though a smaller deficit automatically means a stronger economy. It does not. The real question is not whether America imports more than it exports, but whether the foreign capital accompanying those imports is invested in activities that expand America's future productiv... Read More