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David Callaway
Nov. 4, 2009, 6:53 p.m. EST · Recommend (10) · Post:
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By David Callaway, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Let the bubble blow.
That's the signal the Federal Reserve gave to commodities markets and the stock market Wednesday after keeping interest rates unchanged at historic lows and making no noise about when its policy of easy money will end.
That markets fell in the last hour of trading after the Fed decision inspired a brief rally had more to do with concern about Friday's jobless numbers and Washington meddling in the financial industry than the rate scenario. Who wants to be long when unemployment ticks past 10%, which is possible Friday?
The Fed keeps interest rates low for an "extended period," signaling its stance on the threat of inflation. Plus, Chrysler unveils its recovery plan. WSJ's Neal Boudette gives a live report from the auto maker's Detroit headquarters.
But if the jobs numbers are anywhere near expectations -- that is for cuts of 175,000 in October and a bump in unemployment to 9.9% from 9.8% -- or slightly better, then the gold, oil and stock markets could be off to the races again.
The Fed has essentially pledged no action on its easy money policy until it sees either a big rise in inflation -- not going to happen -- or a meaningful improvement in jobs. That could mean a couple of months of real growth in jobs, not just less cuts.
By standing pat, the Fed and Ben Bernanke risk a further surge in gold prices, probably above $1,100 an ounce, and oil prices, probably close to $90 a barrel. The dollar, while it's fallen substantially, is still well off its lows against the euro and the British pound seen last year. This bubble has further to go.
Now that we've passed through October and all the superstitious mumbo jumbo it generates, it's possible we could see a sustained run in stocks and commodities through the end of the year. It's unlikely the Fed will do anything until then.
That's great for the bulls short-term, but dangerous for the rally once the Fed does determine it has sufficient scope in the jobs numbers to start tightening rates again. The correction we've seen in stocks in the past two weeks really hasn't been much of anything. And the wild swings in the market in the past few days indicate that investors are getting nervous again. Nobody wants to be long ahead of the jobs numbers, but nobody wants to miss the last throes of the rally either.
With Cisco Systems Inc.'s /quotes/comstock/15*!csco/quotes/nls/csco (CSCO 23.30, +0.39, +1.70%) better-than-expected results on Wednesday and bullish outlook for the future, temptations to get back into the market will remain high, and could ignite another powerful leg up should the jobs numbers fall in line. That will only make the correction deeper when it finally comes.
The Fed is playing a dangerous game of chicken with investors and with the jobless. Unless it helps let the air out of some of this rally soon, the drubbing the market will take once things do turn could be vicious.
For now, it's steady as she goes for Bernanke, gold bubble or stock rally be damned. Friday will be a pivotal day for investors.
David Callaway is editor-in-chief of MarketWatch.
- SavCD | 7:02 p.m. Nov. 4, 2009
He says the recovery is under way.
5:20 p.m. Nov. 4, 2009 | Comments: 7
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