Friday, November 6, 2009, 5:51AM ET - U.S. Markets open in 3 hours and 39 minutes.
Stocks and gold rallied sharply Thursday, moving in opposition to the dollar as is so often the case these days.
The inverse correlation between financial assets and the dollar won't change but the trend is about to reverse in a major way, according to Robert Prechter, president of Elliot Wave International and author of Conquer the Crash.
"I think stocks are topping out, commodities are topping out and the dollar is making a bottom," says Prechter, who calls the dollar "one of the most despised" assets in the world.
Ever the contrarian, Prechter cited the heavy bearish sentiment on the dollar when he made similar predictions here in August. Since then, the Dollar Index has made new lows but the dollar has shown intermittent signs of life; in addition, Nouriel Roubini, Martin Wolf and others have made similar forecasts about the potential for a dollar rally.
In the accompanying clip, Prechter also makes the seemingly counterintuitive argument that the dollar will rally because there's so much debt, rather than being doomed because of it. If the economy turns sour again in 2010, as he predicts, Prechter says the dollar will benefit as more dollar-denominated IOUs get called by creditors seeking to shore up their own balance sheets, as was the case in 2008.
A sustained rally in the dollar would have devastating consequences for stocks, emerging-market assets, high-yield debt and commodities. But gold might be the exception, because it represents "real money" and more people are questioning the global paper money system, Prechter says.
Still, the longtime gold bull is "less excited" about the metal as it approaches $1100 and is all the rage in late-night infomercials vs. back in the early 2000s when it was trading below $300 and nobody wanted to talk about it.
This guy has it right!!
Another Moron with all the $$$$ being printed by DUMBO-MA
This rally still has some staying power. We will see Dow 11,000 and Gold at 1,100 before it is over. And everyone will wonder why. Except for FrankMargel.com That guy seems to be on top of things.
PLanet of Apes. No more or less.
Prechter calls stock market top, and expects dollar to rally in the coming months. Read his free newsletter to see how low the dow can go and why: http://www.tradingstocks.net/html/latest_opinion.html
He's Changed His View on Gold 100%. He had no choice.
We are at the top of a major bubble! It was created by easy credit that is inflated for many decades! Here is Prechter's explanation of the big picture and why the collapse will be spectacular: http://www.tradingstocks.net/html/near_bottom.html
i think this guy really believes what he is saying.... no reason for the $$ to go up... the $$$ is on the way out albeit, slowly... as a non American... the last thing i want to own is $$$$s... the only real international currency is gold until the $$$ can be replaced as the currency of choice....
The chart says otherwise:
The chart says otherwise:
Folks, there is a good reason for the dollar to go up. When we borrow, banks create a promise to pay dollars. They don't really have the dollars. Most of the money we use is bank credit. It was created when we borrowed. Here is how banks create money: http://www.tradingstocks.net/html/banks_create_money.html All of our money supply is this kind of IOUs. When we borrowed, we created principal and we promised to pay back principal + interest. Interest portion is not there yet. It was supposed to be created with even more borrowing. If that borrowing does not happen, this creates a shortage where the money supply is not enough to earn and pay back debt. This creates a shortage of US dollars. That is why USD rallied last year. This is why some of us are guaranteed to go bankrupt. This is why the government wants you to buy an expensive home. So that you borrow and inject new money into the economy! Here is the debt problem: http://www.tradingstocks.net/html/inflation_deflation_credit_bub.html
MAYBEE WALL STREET WILL TRADE DOWN TO (0) . WE THEN WILL BE FREE FROM ALL THE CROOKS. TRUTH WILL SET ALL OF US FREE. JUST A NIGHTMARE FOLKS. IF THE FEDS TOLD THE REAL TRUTH, WALL STREET WOULD BE AT 5000 OR LESS.
Why is Google over 550 a share?? Because is has $22 billion in cash and no long term debt of consequence. The corporate and residential real estate markets are going to be active next year as foreclosures rise and new buyers enter the market, putting some strain on some lenders. However, this guy has it wrong. The market is not going down to 6000 again, maybe 8000, briefly, but no way will there be a huge crash like he is expecting. By the way, gold is not real money---I can't take it Walmart, it does not back my currency since Nixon's administration and the price goes up and down worse than a share of Google.
Yeah, sure! The Japanese, Chinese, and other Asians are already looking past us. What's going to happen when they decide that we are not serious about addressing our massive debt, and they begin dumping our treasury bonds? The Japanese and Chinese already own over US$1.4 trillion of our treasury securities. We're headed for the ash heap of history unless we restore our public and private finances. Gold and silver could go through the roof.
All Melia knows is what she sees in the tape - and what it is telling her is the latest dollar rally fell rather flat. Yesterday morning, we got to 77.50 for a fleeting instant, then started to fall back. Now we are at 75.86 and haven't been able to get back above 76 and stay there. It's weak. In fact, with Dow reaching 10K again today (for a brief instant), I'd say we're ready to "lock and load" - it's been a helluva day today, and based on what? 513K jobless claims? A mildly better retail number? A 9% productivity boost? (I enjoyed Rick Santelli's comments on that this morning - he said it's a case of firms holding the sword of Damocles over their remaining workers' heads) C'mon. What is obvious to Melia is that we are getting more excuses by the institutions to put money to work here. They seriously loved the election results from Tuesday as the perception now is that Barry's agenda has been derailed, so we can buy-buy-buy. For now we can.
Planet of Apes. Who is going to get a bigger Banana. Human waste recycle, recycle, recycle, blah, blah, blah. Talk about a zero sum species. Human Apes screwing over their fellow Apes. Beware of Man, for he shall kill his brother and lay waste to his land, the only creature in the universe to commit genocide, send him back into the jungle before he lays waste to you and your kind. Nice Human Model.
Sell the dollar rally. It's up 1.5 percent in the past few days...
Mr. Task, may you get better quickly! Good interview despite the sore throat.
I can't believe this guy is still around. I'd suggest reading this article in its entirety and decide if you want to listen to him. Here is a part of it: "..........Here's how Prechter's trading advice has done from 1/1/85 through 5/31/09 versus the broad U.S. stock market average (Wilshire 5000 index) according to Hulbert's analysis: Annualized Return: "¢ Wilshire 5000 Index + 9.7 percent "¢ Prechter's Trading Advice -15.4 percent Total Return: "¢ Wilshire 5000 Index + 857.1 percent "¢ Prechter's Trading Advice - 98.3 percent The underperformance of Prechter's newsletter is nothing short of astonishing and stunning! On an annualized basis, Prechter has underperformed the broad U.S. stock market Wilshire 5000 index by a whopping 25 percent per year! Here's what Hulbert's analysis shows would have happened to $100,000 invested according to Prechter's investing trading advice versus the Wilshire 5000 U.S. stock market index: $100,000 Invested (1/1/85-5/31/09): "¢ Wilshire 5000 Index $957,100 "¢ Prechter's Trading Advice $1,700 http://www.erictyson.com/articles/20090616
The pump & dumpers are at it again. Ever hear of a double top? Me thinks me sees one forming today.
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