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Nov. 27, 2009, 4:15 p.m. EST · Recommend (11) · Post:
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- U.S. banks are probably less exposed than European rivals to a potential debt default by Dubai World, but a lack of transparency and the interconnectedness of the modern financial system make it difficult to know which institutions are ultimately exposed, analysts said this week.
Dubai said late Wednesday that it would restructure Dubai World, a sprawling conglomerate behind many of the largest construction projects in the Persian Gulf emirate.
Some of the region's indexes took a big hit as the impact of credit problems at Dubai World spreads. Hong Kong bureau chief Peter Stein talks to markets and economics reporter Alex Frangos about the underlying causes of concern in Asia.
Dubai World owes roughly $60 billion and has payments of billions of dollars due in coming weeks. Instead, Dubai announced a six-month "standstill" on repayments. Extending payment deadlines like this is considered a default by many fixed-income investors. Read about Dubai World's potential default.
Shares of banks and other financial-services stocks fell Friday as investors worried about which institutions have lent Dubai World money and now face the prospect of not being paid back on time. See Financial Stocks.
However, U.S. bank shares declined less than European-based institutions because lenders in Europe are generally more exposed to the Middle East.
Cross-border banking exposure for the United Arab Emirates as a whole totaled $123 billion at the end of June, according to Brown Brothers Harriman, which cited data from the Bank for International Settlements. Yet this excludes the bond debt that Dubai World is trying to reschedule, the firm said.
Of that total, European banks hold 72%, with the United States and Japan only holding 9% and 7% of the exposure, respectively. France and Germany each account for around 9%. The United Kingdom is by far the biggest creditor with a share of 41%, Brown Brothers Harriman said.
Foreign banks accounted for $90 billion, or 22%, of the $413 billion in banking assets in the United Arab Emirates at the end of 2008, according to Jason Goldberg, a U.S. banking analyst at Barclays Capital, who cited official UAE data. "The majority appears held at European banks," he wrote in a note.
U.S. banks also have to disclose which cross-border outstandings account for more than 0.75% of assets. Dubai, UAE and other Mideast nations aren't listed in any banks' annual regulatory filings, Goldberg added. "Given U.S. banks have minimal direct exposure, investors looking for exposure to the space could view any stock-price weakness as a potential opportunity."
Goldberg recommends stocks including J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. /quotes/comstock/13*!jpm/quotes/nls/jpm (JPM 41.33, -0.83, -1.97%) , US Bancorp /quotes/comstock/13*!usb/quotes/nls/usb (USB 22.95, -0.62, -2.63%) , PNC Financial Services Group /quotes/comstock/13*!pnc/quotes/nls/pnc (PNC 55.38, -1.49, -2.62%) and Wells Fargo & Co. /quotes/comstock/13*!wfc/quotes/nls/wfc (WFC 27.14, -0.69, -2.48%)
'Given U.S. banks have minimal direct exposure, investors looking for exposure to the space could view any stock-price weakness as a potential opportunity.'
Jason Goldberg, Barclays Capital
Citigroup /quotes/comstock/13*!c/quotes/nls/c (C 4.06, -0.11, -2.64%) was the 14th largest bank operating in UAE in 2008. No other U.S.-based bank was in the top 38, according to Barclays Capital research. A Citi spokeswoman declined to comment on the bank's exposure to the region.
U.K.-based HSBC Holdings PLC /quotes/comstock/13*!hbc/quotes/nls/hbc (HBC 58.46, -3.61, -5.82%) was the fifth-largest bank in the UAE last year, while Standard Chartered was eighth, Barclays Capital said, citing data from the Emirates Bank Association.
HSBC accounted for $29 billion of the $413 billion in banking assets in the UAE at the end of 2008, while Standard Chartered /quotes/comstock/23s!a:stan (UK:STAN 1,520, +6.00, +0.40%) had $19 billion, according to Barclays Capital.
- HomeSickCowboy | 4:47 p.m. Nov. 27, 2009
The largest corporate entity in Dubai is having problems paying back its massive $60 billion debt -- a situation that offers the potential for understanding how well, or poorly, the global economy's prepared to withstand a post-meltdown crisis.
6:37 a.m. Nov. 27, 2009 | Comments: 60
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