Couple of Concerns Amid Year-End Optimism

This blog post originally appeared on RealMoney Silver on Dec. 9 at 7:46 a.m. EST.

First, there were renewed signs of a tentative economic recovery. Specifically, the National Federation of Independent Business's (NFIB) survey of business optimism pulled back again to the lowest reading in four months. (I highlighted the weakening October reading of this important gauge of small businesses activity on CNBC's "Fast Money" recently.) The survey indicated that small businesses continue to see tepid sales growth and tight lending conditions. Historically, the NFIB has been an excellent measure of job creation, and it now signals a materially different outlook than last Friday's jobs report indicated. Small businesses are responsible for nearly all job growth, and this low reading is supportive of my view that the consumer and small business sectors will weigh down the overall growth in jobs, business expenditures and consumer confidence. It was also on reported on Tuesday that same-store sales dropped by 1.3%, down 0.2% year over year vs. expectations for a 1.5% to 2.0% increase. Second, there was more negative country debt news announced yesterday as Fitch lowered its ratings for Greece and gave cautionary comments regarding England's credit ratings. I have recently written on RealMoney Silver that before we write Dubai off as a unique situation, there is never one cockroach as the egregious use of debt over the last decade has a long tail to it. I remain skeptical of the consensus view that Dubai is a one-off, unique situation that resembles nothing else in the world. Dubai is not sui generis. Last week I wrote that Austria's Credit Anstalt failed in 1931 and that it, too, was initially ignored. History steadily provides us with examples that contagions can begin in the most remote of places. When I wrote about the meaning of the Dubai credit mess last week, I specifically highlighted the problems in Greece: "Investors are ignoring some of those nasty critters in Spain and Greece, and don't forget the typical bedbugs in Latvia and in the Ukraine."   Loading Comments...   < Previous 1 2 Next >

SHARE:

Featured Photo Galleries Go to Slideshow Archive

Connect with TheStreet

Business News From The Web

RBS Close to Selling Assets

The Wall Street Journal.

Audit Finds TARP Program Effective

New York Times

Cisco's Chambers: Tough Talk on Data Centers

BusinessWeek Online

Volcker: Only Financial Innovation Has Been ATM Machine

The Big Picture

Office Christmas Party FAIL

Business Pundit

Debt Fears Hit Markets

Forbes.com: Business News

Companies pay less into pensions

BBC

Stocks drop as investors shift to safer assets

Los Angeles Times

Futures Positive as Oil Recovers

FOXBusiness.com

TSA accidentally reveals airport security secrets

Washington Post More Headlines Dow Jones S&P 500 NASDAQ 10-Year Note 10,289.06 1,090.05 2,169.85 34.25 Oil * 72.34 UP 3.09 DOWN 1.88 DOWN 3.14 UP 0.33 10 Yr 3.43% SPDR Gold 110.04 +0.03% -0.17% -0.14% +0.97% Data delayed 20 minutes More From TheStreet Latest Headlines Top Rated Stocks from TheStreet Ratings Top-rated Mutual Funds from TheStreet Ratings The Latest Investment Ideas Top-rated ETFs from TheStreet Ratings Find returns with the Dividend Calendar Twitter RSS Facebook YouTube adsonar_placementId=1341369;adsonar_pid=879768;adsonar_ps=-1;adsonar_zw=320;adsonar_zh=280;adsonar_jv='ads.adsonar.com'; Brokerage Partners YAHOO.util.Event.on(window,"load",function(){ setTimeout(function(){ TSCM.util.attachScript('scr_intellitxt','http://thestreet.us.intellitxt.com/intellitxt/front.asp?ipid=10685'); },1200); }); Sponsored Links Get your credit score in 2 easy steps for free. By Experian Consumer Direct var ads = [ { link:"http://FisherInvestments.click-url.com/INV/go/131834384/direct/01/", text:"How to plan for a secure retirement.", trk:null }, { link:"http://ad.wsod.com/click/8bec9b10877d5d7fd7c0fb6e6a631357/83.45.img.TEXT/", text:"Free stock symbol lookup: Scottrade stock research", trk:'http://ad.wsod.com/embed/8bec9b10877d5d7fd7c0fb6e6a631357/83.45.tk.TEXT/' }, { link:"http://ad.wsod.com/click/8bec9b10877d5d7fd7c0fb6e6a631357/83.45.img.TEXT/", text:"Free stock symbol lookup: Scottrade stock research", trk:'http://ad.wsod.com/embed/8bec9b10877d5d7fd7c0fb6e6a631357/83.45.tk.TEXT/' }, { link:"http://clk.atdmt.com/DEN/go/171694938/direct/01/", text:"Get a guaranteed return. Lock in a great rate on a Citibank CD.", trk:'http://view.atdmt.com/DEN/view/171694938/direct/01/' }, { link:"http://clk.atdmt.com/TNY/go/175928010/direct/01/", text:"Limo rides to & from the airport*. Fly Virgin Atlantic Upper Class.", trk:null }, { link:"http://www.entrepreneur.com/business-opportunities/index.html?cam=thestreet&cid=Homepagetextlink1109", text:"Be Your Own Boss and Start your Own Business Today!", trk:null }, { link:"http://www.usfunds.com/adclick.cfm?adid=2212", text:"What's Driving Gold? Learn more.", trk:null }, { link:"http://bs.serving-sys.com/BurstingPipe/adServer.bs?cn=tf&c=20&mc=click&pli=1072416&PluID=0&ord=", text:"A fearless retirement starts here. Find out more at DontFear65.com.", trk:'http://bs.serving-sys.com/BurstingPipe/adServer.bs?cn=tf&c=19&mc=imp&pli=1072416&PluID=0&ord=&rtu=-1' }, { link:"http://ad.doubleclick.net/clk;219703317;4639705;k?http://www.investors.com/Register/Campaign.aspx?id=aei-n&src=ACECKR3", text:"Are you using the #1 Investing System?", trk:null }, { link:"http://www.goldline.com/d/index.html?id=557&utm_source=thestreet.com&utm_medium=banner&utm_campaign=street-gold-delivered", text:"Goldline.com – A leader in gold investing since 1960.", trk:null }, { link:"http://ad.doubleclick.net/clk;218753205;41757528;l?http://www.optionsxpress.com/?cmpid=tlstreetros", text:"Trade Options, Stocks and Futures in One Account at optionsXpress", trk:null }, { link:"http://clk.atdmt.com/ANY/go/173953744/direct/01/", text:"Take advantage of new opportunities at ups.com/whiteboard", trk:'http://view.atdmt.com/ANY/view/173953744/direct/01/' }, { link:"http://ad.doubleclick.net/clk;220321087;43695531;a", text:"COME HOME FOR THE HOLIDAYS IN A 2010 RANGE ROVER. LEARN MORE.", trk:'http://ad.doubleclick.net/ad/N3016.TheStreet.com/B4104094.27;sz=1x1' }, { link:"http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/?utm_source=thestreet&utm_medium=textlink&utm_campaign=thestreet&utm_content=336x280", text:"Buy Gold, Silver, Platinum online 24/7! Credit Cards Accepted", trk:null }, { link:"http://ad.doubleclick.net/clk;217859701;36852981;v", text:"Invest with U.S. Trust", trk:null }, ]; function __trackingpixel(url){ var ord = Math.floor(Math.random() * 100000000000); if(typeof url != "undefined") { if(url.indexOf('[timestamp]')!= -1) { url = url.replace("[timestamp]", ord); } return ""; } } var counter=-1; var limit = 3; function __write_textlink() { counter++; if(counter >= limit)return; var index = Math.floor(Math.random() * ads.length * 10 % ads.length); var it = ads.splice(index,1); var o = it[0]; document.write(''); document.write( o.text ); document.write( '' ); if(o.trk != null){ document.write(__trackingpixel(o.trk)); } if(ads.length > 0) { __write_textlink(); } else { } }; __write_textlink(); TheStreet Premium Services All Services Action Alerts PLUS Get free access to Cramer's portfolio picks at Action Alerts PLUS - Try it now Free RealMoney Jim Cramer's RealMoney team of 70+ Wall Street pros will give you wealth-building strategies - Get started Free RealMoney Silver Doug Kass + our 5 Premium Services - all in one place - Get a free 14-day trial today Stocks Under $10 David Peltier is ready to help you find affordable Stocks Under $10 which could lead to a big-money payoff - Get access to his portfolio FREE ETF Action Don Dion's brand new service can help investors at all levels build profitable ETF portfolios - Learn more document.write(unescape("%3Cscript src='" + (document.location.protocol == "https:" ? "https://sb" : "http://b") + ".scorecardresearch.com/beacon.js' %3E%3C/script%3E")); var beaconurl=""; if(TSC.util.isDefined(document)){ beaconurl=document.URL; try{ if (top.location != self.location){ beaconurl=document.referrer; } }catch(e){} } COMSCORE.beacon({ c1:2, c2:"6036014", c3:"", c4:beaconurl, c5:"", c6:"", c15:"" }); View Directory Jim Cramer Doug Kass Ron Insana Breakout Stocks Options Alerts Stock Under $10 RealMoney Don Dion's ETF Action Hot Topics: How to Invest in Gold - Fast Money - Apple Tablet - Motorola Droid - Cramer's Picks - Cash for Caulkers - Health Care - Mad Money Resources About Us Advertise Corrections Customer Service Employment Investor Relations Make a Suggestion Privacy Policy Readers' Feedback Sitemap Video Sitemap Subscribe Terms of Use Financial News Archive Topic Archive TheStreet Premium Services Compare All Services Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS: Now any level of investor can trade right alongside a Wall Street pro — and enjoy 24/7 access to his portfolio! Learn More Login NEW! Don Dion's ETF Action: A concise two-step strategy for learning and trading in this increasingly lucrative area of investing. For all levels of investors! Learn More Login RealMoney: Jim Cramer's team of 70+ investment pros offer a daily wealth of fast-breaking market news... analyses... red-hot opportunities...and wealth-building strategies. Learn More Login RealMoney Silver: The genius of Doug Kass + 5 Premium Services = an unrivaled group of expert fundamental analysts, technical analysts, and Wall Street observers. Learn More Login Breakout Stocks: Bryan Ashenberg combines sophisticated screening software with eagle-eye analysis to find small and mid-caps ready to break out! Learn More Login Market Movers Deep in the Money Calls Stocks Under $10 Top Gun Trader TheStreet Ratings Daily Swing Trade Top Stocks ETF Shark Alerts Options Alerts try { function DM_onSegsAvailable(segs, cust_id) { for(var i=0;i /** * absolutley positions an ad using an existing container as an 'anchor' * can optionally update the height of the placeholder (cfg.flexibleHeight) */ TSCM.ads.positionToPlaceholder = function(cfg) { var Yud = YAHOO.util.Dom; var ad = Yud.get(cfg.ad); var placeholder = Yud.get(cfg.placeholder); if(!ad || !placeholder) {return}; if(cfg.flexibleHeight === true) { //option to update height of placeholder based on ad //thanks to IE, we can't do this the simple way with getStyle var height; if (_isIE) { //IE6, IE7 var adRegion = Yud.getRegion(ad); height = adRegion.bottom - adRegion.top; } else { height = Yud.getStyle(ad, 'height'); } //set default height for caus if height detect fails if (height === '0px' || height == '0' || height < '220' ||height === 'undefined' && placeholder.id === 'cauContainer') { height = '220px'; } Yud.setStyle(placeholder, 'height', height); } Yud.setXY(ad, Yud.getXY(placeholder)); //position the ad over the placeholder }; /** * function wrapper that places all DART ads using TSCM.ads.positionToPlaceholder * if positionToPlaceholder can't find the elements specified, it just returns and is ready for the next call */ TSCM.ads.placeLazyLoadingAds = function() { // DART 1 (banner) TSCM.ads.positionToPlaceholder({ ad: 'ad728x90', placeholder: 'bannerContainer', flexibleHeight: false }); // DART 1 (expander) //TSCM.ads.positionToPlaceholder({ // ad: 'expanderad', // placeholder: 'expanderbar', // flexibleHeight: false //}); //DART 2 TSCM.ads.positionToPlaceholder({ ad: 'customUnit', placeholder: 'cauContainer', flexibleHeight: true }); //DART 3 TSCM.ads.positionToPlaceholder({ ad: 'boxAd', placeholder: 'boxAdContainer', flexibleHeight: true }); //DART 4 TSCM.ads.positionToPlaceholder({ ad: 'secondBoxAd', placeholder: 'secondBoxAdContainer', flexibleHeight: true }); }; TSCM.ads.placeLazyLoadingAds() window.onresize = function() { setTimeout(function() { TSCM.ads.placeLazyLoadingAds(); }, 1000); };

RBS Close to Selling Assets

Audit Finds TARP Program Effective

Cisco's Chambers: Tough Talk on Data Centers

Volcker: Only Financial Innovation Has Been ATM Machine

Office Christmas Party FAIL

Debt Fears Hit Markets

Companies pay less into pensions

Stocks drop as investors shift to safer assets

Futures Positive as Oil Recovers

TSA accidentally reveals airport security secrets

After the Bell

Before the Bell

Booyah! Newsletter

ETF Weekly

Midday Bell

TSC Top Ten Stories Newsletter

University Newsletter

Winners & Losers

TheStreet Mobile Edition

Take Our Tour

Connect with TheStreet

Read Full Article »