The Week Ahead December 27, 2009
In the US, data is light for the week. Regional PMI's are expected to show that the manufacturing recovery remains in place. The CaseShiller house price index is expected to show that the bottom in house prices has been made. But consumer confidence is forecast to remain stable at a recessed level.
Internationally, China's manufacturing activity is expected to show ongoing recovery. Even Japan will evidence something of a rebound in both industrial production and retail sales. UK house prices continue to rebound. Inflation is expected to show more normalization in Germany. However, credit growth is expected to show ongoing weakness (Australia and Eurozone).
Manufacturing surveys show ongoing rebound
The Chicago PMI for Dec (Wed 09:45) is forecast to have slipped from 56.1 to 55.1, still slightly above the long-term average of 54.3. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity survey (Mon 10:30) for Dec is expected to have risen from +0.3% to +2.0%, a new high since Nov'07, before the recession started. The Milwaukee NAPM for Dec (Thu 10:00) is expected to have remained steady at 57.0, well above the long-term average of 52.66.
S&P/CaseShiller home price index for Oct (Tue 09:00) is forecast to have risen slightly m/m, allowing the y/y loss to moderate from -9.36% to -7.10%, the smallest decline since Oct'07.
Consumer confidence for Dec (Tue 10:00) is forecast to have risen from 49.5 to 53.0, with the series continuing to stabilize in a "recessed", 47-55 range.
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ASIA
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CHINA
The manufacturing PMI for Dec (Thu 20:00) is forecast to have ticked higher from 55.2 to 55.3, a high since Apr'08.
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JAPAN
Industrial production for Nov (Sun 18:50) is forecast to have jumped 2.5%m/m, the fastest pace since May and well above the 0.1% long-term average.
Retail trade for Nov (Sun 18:50) is expected to have risen 0.2%m/m, a partial rebound from the 0.9% collapse in Oct.
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AUSTRALIA
Private sector credit growth for Nov (Wed 19:30) is not forecast, but the October print of 1.1% represented the weakest pace since the 1991-93 period.
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EUROPE
German CPI for Dec (Tue) is expected to have risen 0.6%m/m, causing the y/y rate to increase to 0.7%, the strongest print since Apr and supportive of the notion that deflation has ended.
Eurozone M3 growth for Nov (Wed 04:00) is forecast to have risen 0.4%y/y, up from 0.3% in Oct and the first increase in the pace since Apr. The pace of growth remains extremely weak, but the uptick suggests that a corner might be getting turned.
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UK
Nationwide house prices for Dec (Thu 02:00) are forecast to have risen 0.3%m/m, the eight consecutive increase and indicative of ongoing recovery in the housing market.
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