Business writers love hyperbole. The ground will swell. The paradigm will shift. But what if occasionally a new tech gadget comes along that really does shake up society? Apple's (AAPL) planned tablet may just be such a device.
Speculation about Apple's one-device-to-rule-them-all iPad reached fever pitch this month when Yair Reiner, an analyst at Oppenheimer (OPY), dug through Steve Jobs' production pipeline and found evidence that the tablet was being readied for an April 2010 launch.
The timing makes sense. The iPhone is three years old, the U.S. economy is rebounding, and gadget demand is pent up among Americans who held off on toy upgrades during the recession. By spring we'll no doubt be past the holiday sales of the black-and-white e-readers that still look vaguely like medical prostate screening devices.
The world is recovering from its Wall Street hangover, and it's looking for a new tech party invitation. An Apple tablet would be the guest of honor. Laura DiDio, an analyst at Information Technology Intelligence, has predicted the Apple tablet will be "the next big thing," complete with 10- to 12-inch high-res screen, Web connection, and a video cam. Other manufacturers such as Dell (DELL) are preparing tablets, too, but Apple is the one to watch—because Apple is best at making radical new hardware formats undeniably cool.
So yes, the Jesus Tablet will appear. And yes, you'll buy one with an artificially high price of, say, $800 as penance for being an early adopter. Within two years the price will fall to $199 until everyone including your 6-year-old has a gleaming, do-anything, interactive pane of glass on his or her desk.
As that happens, the iPad will change the world in at least five ways.
• Magazine and newspaper publishing will bounce back as consumers rediscover paid subscriptions. Sorry, Chris Anderson, but not everything will revert to free. It's no mistake Time Inc.'s (TWX) Sports Illustrated invested in a sexy tablet magazine demo that's also due to hit the market next year.
Publishers realize they have a very narrow window to recapture the paid subscribers they lost to the Web, and they'll do anything to grab you with the Apple gizmo. Expect to see publishers launch visually stunning versions of their magazines with swooping typography, video insets, CNN iReporter-style news uploads, social media overlays—whatever it takes to make you think you're seeing a magazine or newspaper like never before, so much so you'll even want to pay for it.
• Television and radio ratings will continue to fall. Unlike print, TV and radio won't fit easily into the Apple tablet's format. Sure, U.S. consumers still watch 5 hours and 9 minutes of live television a day, but the problem is ratings don't hold when commercials actually air. Certainly, Apple will try to push TV shows and movies through the tablet via iTunes, but we're betting they don't sit well in your hand. Rather than being a device to watch television, the Apple tablet is more likely to be an interactive distraction when real TV ads come on your basement set.
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