What happened to the global economy and what we can do about it
with 24 comments
The American Economics Association is meeting in Atlanta, where Simon says it is frigid. I went to an early-January conference in Atlanta once. There was a quarter-inch of snow, the roads turned to ice, and everything closed. All flights were canceled, so I and some friends ended up taking the train to Washington, DC, which had gotten two feet of snow, and eventually to New York.
Paul Krugman’s speaking notes are here. Ben Bernanke’s are here.
Bernanke’s speech is largely a defense of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy in the past decade, and therefore of the old Greenspan Doctrine dating back to the 1996 “irrational exuberance” speech–the idea that monetary policy is not the right tool for fighting bubbles. The Fed has gotten a lot of criticism saying that cheap money earlier this decade created the housing bubble, and I think it certainly played a role.
But I actually agree with Bernanke here:
“[T]he most important source of lower initial monthly payments, which allowed more people to enter the housing market and bid for properties, was not the general level of short-term interest rates, but the increasing use of more exotic types of mortgages and the associated decline of underwriting standards. That conclusion suggests that the best response to the housing bubble would have been regulatory, not monetary. Stronger regulation and supervision aimed at problems with underwriting practices and lenders’ risk management would have been a more effective and surgical approach to constraining the housing bubble than a general increase in interest rates.”
(Note that the purpose of stronger regulation, according to Bernanke, is to constrain the housing bubble that he denied existed at the time–not to protect consumers.)
The problem, for the Greenspan-Bernanke legacy at least, is that the Fed is also the chief regulator of the financial system, with jurisdiction over all bank holding companies and primary responsibility for consumer protection statutes applying to all financial institutions. Here Bernanke makes a partial attempt at an apology:
“The Federal Reserve and other agencies did make efforts to address poor mortgage underwriting practices. In 2005, we worked with other banking regulators to develop guidance for banks on nontraditional mortgages, notably interest-only and option-ARM products. In March 2007, we issued interagency guidance on subprime lending, which was finalized in June. After a series of hearings that began in June 2006, we used authority granted us under the Truth in Lending Act to issue rules that apply to all high-cost mortgage lenders, not just banks. However, these efforts came too late or were insufficient to stop the decline in underwriting standards and effectively constrain the housing bubble.”
In other words, we did nothing until 2005, and then we didn’t do much.
I don’t really care about apologies. The more important question is what Bernanke and the Fed will do in the future. On that front, he has this to say:
“The Federal Reserve is working not only to improve our ability to identify and correct problems in financial institutions, but also to move from an institution-by-institution supervisory approach to one that is attentive to the stability of the financial system as a whole. Toward that end, we are supplementing reviews of individual firms with comparative evaluations across firms and with analyses of the interactions among firms and markets. We have further strengthened our commitment to consumer protection. And we have strongly advocated financial regulatory reforms, such as the creation of a systemic risk council, that will reorient the country’s overall regulatory structure toward a more systemic approach. The crisis has shown us that indicators such as leverage and liquidity must be evaluated from a systemwide perspective as well as at the level of individual firms.”
There are basically only two things in this paragraph, one of which is disingenuous at best. Bernanke claims that he is getting serious about consumer protection, yet he has lobbied against the Consumer Financial Protection Agency, which everyone who is serious about consumer protection wants. I’m disappointed that Bernanke would stoop to this kind of misleading rhetoric.
The other thing is a lot of talk about systemic risk. Yes, systemic risk is important. But all the words I hear about it, and the fact that the importance of systemic risk is one of the few things that everyone can agree on, are making me start to worry. Specifically, I wonder if a lot of regulatory apparatus aimed at systemic risk will serve as a distraction from old-fashioned regulation of individual institutions. Yes, it’s true that the thing that hit us in 2008 was systemic risk. But it’s also true that regulators already had the power to supervise Citigroup, Bank of America, Wachovia, Washington Mutual, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, and Countrywide and force them to pare back their risky activities–and didn’t. Talking about systemic risk is a way of passing the buck–of excusing regulatory failure by saying that regulators didn’t have the authority to look at systemic risk. But the fact remains that someone looked at Citigroup’s range of businesses and its asset portfolio and decided it was a healthy bank.That was at least as big a problem.
I’ve been on the fence about Bernanke’s confirmation, mainly because I’m not so optimistic we’ll get anyone better from a policy standpoint, and we could certainly get someone worse from the standpoint of intelligence, knowledge, thoughtfulness, and work ethic. But now that I’ve read this speech, I’m against confirmation.
Update: I should clarify one thing. I am sure there are better people out there. I’m less confident about whomever Obama and his advisers would pick. This is a deeply centrist administration, at least on economic issues, and one that is absolutely not going to make a major policy shift anytime soon; whether or not we agree with them, their current message is that they have done a good job fixing the financial system and running the economy. So I think that if Bernanke by some miracle were not confirmed, Obama would take pains to appoint someone with the same policy positions.
By James Kwak
Written by James Kwak
January 3, 2010 at 3:35 pm
Posted in Commentary
Tagged with Federal Reserve, monetary policy, regulation
This is the most extreme current example of wingnut welfare, that there’s even a question of returning this simpleton to any job other than ditch-digger.
Bernanke, Summers, Geithner..compared to still having them in top jobs, bringing back Brownie sounds like it would be an improvement.
At least we’d be spared the hack hagiography which is still lavished on these vegetative lumps, like in Time magazine a couple weeks ago.
I love how he says “It wasn’t monetary policy, it was regulatory failure!”, as if he forgot that that was the Fed’s failure as well.
It’s like Homer Simpson saying “I wasn’t asleep at the switch, I was drunk!”
(And Bennie’s supporters would be like Bart tenderly replying, “I believe you, Dad.”)
I've been on the fence about Bernanke's confirmation, mainly because I'm not so optimistic we'll get anyone better from a policy standpoint, and we could certainly get someone worse from the standpoint of intelligence, knowledge, thoughtfulness, and work ethic. But now that I've read this speech, I'm against confirmation.
Well, I’m glad to hear that.
I should point out to anybody else vacillating over that rationale that firing somebody who badly screwed up, and whether or not his replacement is likely to be “any better”, are two completely separate issues and should never be confounded.
When there’s a monumental SNAFU, heads have to roll, on principle, even if no one was actually at fault.
But where there was such monumental fault, nothing could possibly be more demoralizing, and indeed more symptomatic of the underlying rot, than there being even the slightest question of firing those responsible.
The fact that even so many otherwise reasonable people have said they don’t know if Bennie should be fired because they don’t know who his replacement would be, and the facts that we’re not getting reform and that the looting continues, are all part of the same underlying decadence.
They all indicate that this is a people which has utterly lost its moral fiber and spiritual integrity.
Russ
January 3, 2010 at 4:21 pm
Russ: “The fact that even so many otherwise reasonable people have said they don't know if Bennie should be fired because they don't know who his replacement would be, and the facts that we're not getting reform and that the looting continues, are all part of the same underlying decadence.”
I did not see your comment when I started typing mine, but I picked up on that too. (more than picked up: I had to read James’ posting twice and ended up in shock: 300 million Americans and no one better than Bubblenanke??!)
carol
January 3, 2010 at 4:41 pm
“They all indicate that this is a people which has utterly lost its moral fiber and spiritual integrity.”
A well reasoned and a well expressed comment, Russ. But what can you expect from a people some of whom, and most of these well educated, think its perfectly alright to end the life of child by sucking its brains out.
Lavrenti Beria
January 3, 2010 at 5:35 pm
LB – Too bad you were spared that procedure.
heyZeus
January 3, 2010 at 9:46 pm
James: “I don't really care about apologies.”
But perhaps you agree that some apologies are valid ones (in the sense that yes indeed there are now really new insights) and some are very lame ones. I find it oftentimes revealing what type of apologies people come up with.
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