This post originally appeared on the author's blog, Financial Armageddon
For months now, there's been considerable debate about whether the U.S. economy is on the road to recovery.
Bulls point to the massive monetary and fiscal stimulus that's been pumped into the economy, the sharp rebound in share prices, and the relative improvement in certain indicators as a reason for optimism.
Bears -- like me -- note the persistent negative sentiment on Main Street and in many corporate boardrooms, the steady increase in foreclosures, personal bankruptcies, and the ranks of the long-term unemployed, and the numerous imbalances -- including still-very-high levels of public and private debt -- that remain unresolved.
So who's right?
Chances are that we won't know the right answer for some time. Historically, sustained economic recoveries have not been fully recognized until well after the fact.
But one way to get a sense of where things stand is to look at how things are playing out relative to the past. On that basis, the notion that the economy is back on track leaves a lot to be desired.
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Now you see why I predicted a hyperinflationary fiasco in Japan this year.
Clouds are gathering. I fear a seriously disappointing recovery in 2010-2011.
The notion that the economy is back on track leaves a lot to be desired.
Don't worry about rate increases. Worry about the recession that won't end.
Get ready for May 2010, when the housing crisis is returning with a vengeance.
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