A milestone in Bernanke's nomination was reached this morning "¦. the Sunday political talk shows. John McCain came out this morning against Bernanke. So here's what we know. As of this morning (noon CT, January 24) "¦
Bernanke needs 60 votes to end a filibuster of his nomination (known as cloture). After cloture, he then needs 51 to be reappointed. So, the bogey is 60 for cloture.
Senators that announced they will vote for Bernanke
Senators that announced they will vote against Bernanke
Analysis
So far 41 Senators have publicly declared for or against Bernanke. 63% (27) are for and 16 (37%) are against. Remember he needs 60 of 100 votes, so this is very close.
Additionally, since the December 17, 2009 Senate Finance committee vote, Bernanke has picked up an additional 11 votes and lost another 8 votes. Or, Bernanke picked up 58% of declared Senators and lost 42% since he passed the Senate Finance committee. Again, very close to the 60 of 100 he needs.
Senators that announced they are undecided about Bernanke
Senators that have announced nothing about Bernanke
Conclusion
Bernanke's reappointment vote is coming down to the wire, it is going to be close. Recall that Bernanke was reappointed in August by Obama and the Senate Finance committee approved him on December 17. Now with seven days until his term expires, his nomination has gone from a sure thing to in doubt.
And, if you think this is not political, consider the 36 senate senate up for election in December:
In other words, senators up for reelection are saying "aye" at a rate of 47%, not enough to get Bernanke reappointed let alone achieve 60% for cloture. Party affiliation does not matter.
Thank the MA senate election and the desire of Senators to not support something that is unpopular. Is Bernanke unpopular? The following is from a CNBC survey taken in December. Bernanke was about as popular as Bernie Madoff. Do you want to say yes to a guy this unpopular if you're in a tight reelection race?
<Click on table for larger image>
What Saves Bernanke?
In the last 18 months, the threat or an actual stock market crash seems to force Congress to do unpopular things. In September 2008, after TARP failed to pass its first vote, the stock market crashed 777 DJIA points that day. All that week everyone from Warren Buffett on down hyperventilated that failure to pass TARP would mean destruction in the financial markets. A week later it passed.
In January 2009 it was learned that Tim Geithner had a "tax problem." Everyone from Warren Buffett on down hyperventilated that failure to approve Geithner would mean destruction for the financial markets. Geithner passed Senate confirmation even though six other Obama nominees withdrew because of similar tax problems (including former Senate majority leader Tom Daschle).
Friday the stock market was down 220 DJIA points in part on fears that Bernanke might not get reappointed. We disagree with this analysis. We believe the market is down on fears the administration has no "plan B" if Bernanke goes down and it will take months for them to find a new Fed chief when the critical exit strategy needs to be formulated and implemented. As noted above, Bernanke is not that popular so we do not believe it is about him. It's about consistency and continuity. However, this might be a distinction without a difference.
Again everyone from Warren Buffett on down is hyperventilating that failure to approve Bernanke would mean destruction for the financial markets. The question is if this threat and 220 DJIA point decline is enough to push Bernanke over the finish line. Or, do the markets have to get significantly worse this week to scare the Senate into approving Bernanke?
Or guess is that Friday's action is not enough as there are too many other cross currents between bank taxes, new banking rules (the "Volcker rule") and the impact of the MA senate race to say last week's decline was all about Bernanke.
In other words, if Bernanke does not pass, the markets get worse as the next Fed chief is months away and cannot be as dovish as "helicopter Ben" and his two trillion balance sheet. If the markets do not get worse, Bernanke does not pass as the sense of urgency dissipates.
Unless Friday was enough to scare the Senate to approve Bernanke, and we do not believe it was, it seems like the Bernanke situation is near-term bearish.
Should Bernanke not win reconfirmation, I would favor San Fran Fed’s Janet Yellen, who has repeatedly demonstrated that she “gets it.”
Thanks for re-posting this here, Barry.
Here’s the deal, folks. Please call and/or email your senators today and of course say you are opposed to BB’s nomination. But also add the following:
The Senate should not vote on cloture or take any further action on this issue until Scott Brown has been seated.
hey money brainieacks – Q ? was chatting at the bar yesterday – do I have it right that the USofA Treasury holds the right to coinage and the entity called the US Federal Reserve has the right to print paper?
If that paper was abolished, how much would my State Quarter collection be worth?
Once again a terrific diary from Badabing that currently has 245 recs
Confirm Bernanke or Wall St. Could Blow Up…WTF? http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/1/24/829765/-Confirm-Bernanke-or-Wall-St.-Could-Blow-Up…WTF
My take is that Mr. fauz ‘hope and change’ is another pretender Pres. just like the dunce before him
There is no will or commitment from either the Obama admin or mostly assclowns in Congress to change the US economy dependence on Financial capitalism ( asset bubbles, ponzi schemes ) so Bernanke will be confirmed and Americans ( with a larger number becoming more and more tapped out ) will get more ‘extend and pretend’ and kicking of the can down the road….
When Sen. Sanders says to Obama Wake the F### up you know something stinks to high heaven….maybe this Vampire Squid from Hell
There are two take away points in the Bernanke Reappointment. 1. Bernanke is yet one more “TBTF”. 2. This Administration can organize a full court press for Bernanke and Wall Street but not A public option/ expansion of medicare for main street.
Choosing Wall Street over Main Street is a lose to the country.
Oh for pete’s sake. The best reason to keep him is that the markets will collapse?
Gimme a break, if our markets are soooo fragile and weak, then we might as well take the bull by the horns and fix them now.
The Other White Meat will save Ben’s bacon.
While we read this post deals are being made to replenish the pork barrels of those sitting on the fence: More bridges to no where, building a replica of the Great Pyramid of Egypt in Indiana, building a private pleasure boat harbor in Cleveland, etc.
Just political drama to enable the looting.
It begs the question, who would they nominate as a replacement?
“failure to approve Bernanke would mean destruction for the financial markets.”
Maybe we should just burn down the Reichstag that usually consolidates power.
Bernanke will win re-nomination, not a squeaker but enough NO votes to give those in trouble with the electorate a soapbox from which to crow. It’s all theater of course, as all politics has ever been, even wall street’s gettin’ in on that action (GS doing God’s work). With wall street managing the market for their own interest and Washington spinning for theirs, the resultant environment generates greater instability… which of the circling black swans land first… methinks the leading candidate is another terrorist attack, or sovereign attack(Israel and Hezbollah poking each other) and don’t count out the CIA stoking the fires of revolution in Iran.
Distinction without a difference is correct. Bernanke doesn’t inspire that much confidence, but at least it’s continuity. If he does not get the confirmation, I’d look for a selloff. No idea how much or how little. If he does get the confirmation, things should level out.
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