One month into the New Year and investors have already witnessed their fair share of political turmoil. Last week’s confirmation of Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke was something of a nail biter; and, the week before, President Obama proposed new banking fees that some argue will do more harm than good to reforming the financial system. Then there are the countless changes proposed in the president’s State of the Union address, which were confirmed this week in the administration’s budget proposal. Although no one can say whether or not these changes will be good or bad for the U.S. economy – and, by extension, people’s investment portfolios -- it’s clear that nagging doubts about the economy and policy decisions are confounding investors well into the recovery. Here’s what two brokers had to say about how policy changes will affect the markets.
Who’s Talking: Robert V. DiClemente, chief U.S. economist of Citigroup (C)
The Gist: Signs that the economy is perking up are increasingly evident. And while the Fed might consider changing its near-zero interest rate stance as a result, weak bank lending will drive that worry away for the time being.
Last week, data regarding core durable goods orders showed a 1.3% increase while core capital goods shipments also rose. While such an uptick indicates that business spending on equipment and software may be picking up, the Fed is particularly interested in consumer spending and job growth, which have only shown modest improvements. “Their desire to maintain the cap on expected interest rates indicates that their confidence has not reached a level that would point to a timetable for unwinding extreme accommodation,” says DiClemente.
Further, bank lending remains subdued. According to the latest Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, which came out this week, some domestic banks continued to tighten terms on commercial and industrial loans to firms of all sizes. Although the president moved this week to shore up $30 billion for community banks to lend to small businesses, it’s too early to say whether or not the program, if passed, will have any effect on freeing up credit.
There is also an overall nervousness among investors about what will happen when government supports run out, says DiClemente. New and existing home sales fell sharply in December. Pending sales also were lower as were buyer traffic and mortgage applications. “There is more of this payback in store and it underscores the dominant role that government support — both direct and indirect — has played in the housing recovery to date,” DiClemente says.
Who’s Talking: Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist, FOREX.com
The Gist: While noting the uptick in business purchases, which accounted for a large portion of the nation’s impressive fourth-quarter gross domestic product reading, this broker believes this so-called inventory swing isn’t the sign that some recovery watchers were hoping for.
At a 5.7% annualized growth rate, the U.S. GDP growth in the fourth quarter was robust. However, Dolan thinks calibrating those figures is necessary. Most of the increase was driven by a “quirky statistical phenomenon” known as an inventory swing, which accounted for more than 3% of the total GDP figure, he says. And although business inventory reductions were lower for the quarter, that pullback wasn’t as dramatic as it’s been. Specifically, the businesses only decreased inventories by $33.5 billion in the fourth quarter, up from a $139.2 billion drop during the third quarter and the $160.2 billion plunge in the second quarter. “It’s the swing that matters,” says Dolan.
To gauge U.S. growth over the period with greater accuracy, look at the real GDP, suggests Dolan. In the quarter, this number gained a more modest 2.2%. That still amounted to its highest since the second quarter of 2008 when the economy grew by 2.7% in real terms. But, “anyone that thinks the economy was on the verge of something special back then needs to revisit what happened in the third and fourth quarter of that year,” he adds.
Still, inventories do matter as added production gets factories moving and provides workers income, which supports consumer spending and accounts for roughly 70% of GDP. Plus, gains in the U.S. factory sector ran contrary to consumer spending, which was tepid during the month. In its key report, the Institute for Supply Management said its index of manufacturing activity increased to 58.4 in January from 54.9 in December and 53.7 in November. (Anything above 50 means factories are expanding their businesses.) On Monday, however, the Commerce Department suggested that consumers remained cautious at year’s end despite rising income levels.
Meanwhile, Dolan says investors who were backing away from riskier investments, like stocks, during the month of January will continue these risk-averse activities as some consolidation is expected ahead of U.S. unemployment data on Friday. “We are now expecting a further unwinding of long-risk positions, which should see stocks, commodities and [carry trades] extend recent declines more aggressively,” he says. On a brighter note: The U.S. dollar is likely to benefit from a further sell-off.
From the Brokers: Links to Broker Sites and Research Ameriprise Financial Barclays Charles Schwab DWS (Deutsche Bank) Edward Jones Fidelity J.P. Morgan Merrill Lynch Morgan Stanley Raymond James T. Rowe Price Wachovia Securities
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