Dallas
PRESIDENT OBAMA called on America to “export more of our goods” in his State of the Union address last month, setting a goal of doubling what we sell abroad in five years. Good idea, but it would have been so much better if he had said “goods and services.”
Editing the president’s speeches isn’t my job, but the missing words suggest that the White House, like much of the rest of the country, hasn’t realized that exports of services are one of America’s 21st-century success stories. We still picture exports being loaded on ships or planes, but — as the accompanying chart based on Commerce Department data shows — overseas sales are today increasingly delivered in person or sent across the Internet.
Exports of American services have jumped by 84 percent since 2000, while the growth rate among goods was 66 percent. America trails both China and Germany in sales of goods abroad, but ranks No. 1 in global services by a wide margin. And while trade deficits in goods have been enormous — $840 billion in 2008 — the country runs a large and growing surplus in services: we exported $144 billion more in services than we imported, dwarfing the surpluses of $75 billion in 2000 and $58 billion in 1992.
Equally important, Commerce Department data show that the United States is a top-notch competitor in many of the high-value-added services that support well-paying jobs.
One of the brightest spots is operational leasing — a segment of the industry that handles short-term deals on airplanes, vehicles and other equipment — in which exports exceeded imports by eight to one. Our edge was six to one in distributing movies and television shows, and nearly four to one in architectural, construction and engineering services. Royalties and license fees, one of the largest categories in dollar terms, came out better than three to one, as did exports in advertising, education, finance, legal services and medicine.
All told, the United States is competitive in 21 of 22 services trade categories. It recorded striking surpluses in 12 of them. Only in insurance did America run a significant deficit, a persistent outcome that reflects foreign prowess in reinsurance (that is, policies insurers take out from other insurance companies to protect against catastrophic losses).
This pattern holds over time. The pecking order may change from year to year — for example, industrial engineering had the biggest surplus in 2006 and film and television held the top spot in 2007 — but the data consistently show the United States is highly competitive in a wide range of services categories.
So, given how well we are selling services abroad already, can we reach President Obama’s five-year goal of doubling exports? Actually, it shouldn’t be that daunting. Our overseas sales of goods and services combined rose nearly 80 percent from 2003 to 2008. In fact, the current weak dollar and continuing economic growth in Asia might be enough to carry us the rest of the way to the goal even if the president’s proposed National Export Initiative fails to get off the ground. That said, there are some concrete measures that should be taken now that will pay off in the longer term, most having to do with free trade.
The president said he would “reform export controls” and “continue to shape” an agreement that opens global markets during the so-called Doha round of World Trade Organization negotiations. But those talks are in their ninth year, and a final accord is a long way off. For now, we have to look at trade as a two-way street: increasing our opportunities to export entails giving other countries greater access to the American market. We can complain as much as we want about China and other nations stifling domestic sales of our products, but our companies will get nowhere if the United States comes to the bargaining table with a something-for-nothing mindset.
President Obama’s call for investing in the skills and education of our people will help exports, as our services tend to entail a great deal of specialized knowledge. Improving this labor force takes time, however, so any education improvements aren’t going to spur exports in the next few years. The quickest way to upgrade the labor force to meet Mr. Obama’s goal lies in immigration reform that admits more well-educated foreigners. A good place to start is by passing laws to allow more American-educated foreigners to stay in the country after they get their degrees.
W. Michael Cox, the former chief economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, is the director of the Center for Global Markets and Freedom at Southern Methodist University's Cox School of Business.
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