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Here is some good news on the jobs picture, courtesy of economists at Deutsche Bank.
After collapsing last year, individual income-tax withholding seems to be turning a corner. Tax withholding is a good jobs indicator, because you have to have a job to get your taxes withheld.
Withholding sank with the recession's onset and collapsed after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. But it seems to be turning a corner.
Here's Joseph LaVorgna's take: “The tax data, which are reported daily by the US Treasury, are particularly valuable to us because they are not subject to revision. Over the past 3-4 months, the plunge in tax receipts has reversed sharply. While still down in year-on-year terms (-2.5%), the lengthening recovery in tax receipts strongly supports our view that net positive hiring is very near—probably not in the February figures (due to weather), but increasingly likely when the March jobs data are reported on April 2.”
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Where can I get these statistics on an ongoing basis?
Maybe, like me, raises were given out for the first time in over a year. I haven’t hired anyone new.
Year end bonuses……
Appears there is a jog up about the same time every year. The recent one is bigger though. To soon to tell anything, and some of the other comments on possibilities may also play out. We will see.
This makes no sense whatsoever. With U-6 unemployment at 17%, official unemployment at 9.8% (and this down from 10.2% only due to people dropping out of the work force), and new unemployment claims proving sticky over 400,000, what would be driving improved withholding receipts? It could be year-end bonuses including the banksters’ egregious, self-lauditory bonuses providing a one-time pop, but otherwise I don’t see anything on the employment landscape that looks positive.
Real Time Economics offers exclusive news, analysis and commentary on the economy, Federal Reserve policy and economics. The Wall Street Journal's Phil Izzo and Sudeep Reddy are the lead writers, with contributions from other Journal reporters and editors. Send news items, comments and questions to realtimeeconomics@wsj.com. Read more Economics coverage.
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