Posted by Keith Jurow 03/05/10 8:00 AM EST
Author Bio | Archives
Related Stories:
Click Here To See Prior News Posts By This Contributor »
© Copyright 2009 REAL ESTATE CHANNEL CORPORATION, All Rights Reserved.
johnl1 | 03/10/10 11:53 AM | Reply
Keith - - -
Great article.
I see some interesting correlations.
1. The 7 million investment properties are 43% of the 18 million vacant residences (http://seekingalpha.com/article/184398-housing-government-as-casino-player ). Of course, some of the investment properties may have been resold or rented, but the probability that investment properties are vacant than for homes sold for owner occupancy.
2. The Freddie Mac figures are incomplete. A Fed research report (cited in my article "The Hidden Depression of the 2000s" http://seekingalpha.com/article/162373-the-hidden-depression-of-the-2000s ), gives a total of $1.8 trillion home equity withdrawn for 2005, 2006 and 2007.
3. Projecting how much further the national average home prices have to fall is a difficult task. I have projected another 10%, but it could be less than 5% or more than 15%. It seems unlikely that the bottom in median price has been seen. If we have a stronger economic recovery than I am anticipating, the bottom could be in. If we see GDP growth of 2-2.5% for the entire year 2010, the bottom is almost certainly not in. A booming year above 5% GDP growth for the entire year could see median prices move higher, not lower.
Again, this is an excellent review of where the housing market is and some of the pressures that remain to be overcome.
Note: Hyperlinks are not active. Please cut and paste to your URL window.
Enter email to receive breaking real estate news alerts
Meet Our Global News Team » See our global news team's and guest news contributors' bios here.
Archived News Stories » See all our prior news stories by month and year.
Read Full Article »