America Must Start Innovating or Die

Did you ever think you would see an America in which most people see no problem with unemployment around 10%; 0% interest rates for more than a year (even though the economy allegedly grew more than 5% last quarter); $150 trillion of government liabilities coming due in the next 20 years; rising taxes; taxpayer-guaranteed bank and Wall Street profits; the government takeover of a major corporation like General Motors; excessive government control of multiple industries; and a Treasury market dependent on the sale of trillions of dollars of new bonds every year, with the Chinese government and our own Federal Reserve as the critical buyers?

Even a simple thing like the unemployment rate shows our ignorance. The Congressional Budget Office uses a 5% unemployment rate in its estimate of future growth and liabilities, but the chance of 5% unemployment any time in the next 10 years is almost zero. We need to either have millions of people of working age die or have about 400,000 jobs added per month for several years in a row. We never even got close to that during the best job market of our lifetime, which was in the late 1990s, and we never even got more than 200,000 jobs per month for the entire decade that just ended. That was with record low interest rates. Just to keep the unemployment rate where it is we need 150,000 jobs added per month -- every month. It's doubtful we can even keep that up for years, especially with either much higher interest rates or much higher commodity prices and inflation. One way or another you have to pay for money. Either you pay with higher rates, or with a cheaper currency and higher inflation. Except our economy is 67% consumption, so any export-oriented job gains from a cheaper currency will be wiped out by the lack of purchasing power of consumers. How does this add up to anything but disaster? All we need is Emperor Nero and his fiddle right now.   Loading Comments...   1 2 3 Last » Next ›

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