Thu 29 Apr 2010
Posted by Prieur du Plessis under Investment, Stocks [2] Comments
In addition to fundamental and technical analysis, it is particularly important to measure the crowd's sentiment regarding extreme bearishness or bullishness. A convenient tool for this is provided by the Investors Intelligence survey of investment advisors.
According to the latest reading (April 27), 54.0% of advisors are bulls (up from 34.1% in February) and 18.0% are in the bear camp (down from 27.8% in February). As shown below, the last time bullish sentiment was at this level was in December 2007 when the S&P 500 Index was trading 26% higher at 1,500.
Source: Bespoke, April 28, 2010.
"Bulls around 55% and fewer than 20% bears are the first indications of a market top. As mentioned last week, we now classify the advisory sentiment as negative, similar to the outlook that started this year [and preceded a 9% correction]. Markets can still move higher and the bulls could approach 60% before a final top is in place. In the near-term, though we would expect a modest pull back to consolidate the near three-month rally. At present we do not project a correction approaching 10%,"? said the report.
I am holding a cautious stance here.
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More on this topic (What's this?) This Is a Classical Bull Market (Donaldson Capital: Rising Divid..., 4/23/10) Seven Signs This Bull Market Could Continue (Investment U, 4/15/10) Rydex Market Timers: How Extreme? (The Technical Take, 4/21/10) Read more on Bull market, Technical Analysis at WikinvestThe Financial Ad Trader - banner ads
Email Digg Del.icio.us Technorati Stumble Reddit Facebook « Prieur's readings (April 29, 2010) | Drinks at the bar, in London » 2 Responses to â?? Stock market sentiment "â?? indicating top â? Comments: Ross Pepperell says: April 30th, 2010 at 1:36 pm
Hi Prieur,
Firstly, thanks for the great blog â?? you give me food for thought.
Re: investor sentiment, can you tell me how far it has fallen with the Greek crisis unfolding?
Also with respect to equities, how receptive are you to the argument that as cash give -ve real returns, fixed interest mostly is back to fair value, commercial property still needs to repair, equities actually represent the only main stream asset class which represent any value â?? especially considering the consensus view still argues against this?
Thanks
Ross
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Email Digg Del.icio.us Technorati Stumble Reddit Facebook « Prieur's readings (April 29, 2010) | Drinks at the bar, in London » 2 Responses to â?? Stock market sentiment "â?? indicating top â? Comments: Ross Pepperell says: April 30th, 2010 at 1:36 pm
Hi Prieur,
Firstly, thanks for the great blog â?? you give me food for thought.
Re: investor sentiment, can you tell me how far it has fallen with the Greek crisis unfolding?
Also with respect to equities, how receptive are you to the argument that as cash give -ve real returns, fixed interest mostly is back to fair value, commercial property still needs to repair, equities actually represent the only main stream asset class which represent any value â?? especially considering the consensus view still argues against this?
Thanks
Ross
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[...] Market to be careful. The latest sentiment indicator (chart): http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2010/04/29/stock-market-sentiment-%E2%80%93-indicating-market-topâ?¦ The latest from Trader Mike: [...]
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Calendar April 2010 M T W T F S S « Mar 1234 567891011 12131415161718 19202122232425 2627282930 Recent Posts New highs losing momentum Number of shares above 50-day moving averages sounds alarm bells Drinks at the bar, in London Stock market sentiment "â?? indicating top Prieur's readings (April 29, 2010) Recent Comments Ross Pepperell on Stock market sentiment "â?? indicating topDan on Drinks at the bar, in LondonAngela on Rosenberg "â?? 12 reasons the stock market could tankLaeeth on Drinks at the bar, in LondonWas Tuesday an outlier? - Steve Cook on Disciplined Investing - InvestorsInsight.com | Financial Intelligence, Advice & Research / Investment Strategies & Planning for Individual Investors. on Stock market sentiment "â?? indicating top Archives April 2010 March 2010 February 2010 January 2010 December 2009 November 2009 October 2009 September 2009 August 2009 July 2009 June 2009 May 2009 April 2009 March 2009 February 2009 January 2009 December 2008 November 2008 October 2008 September 2008 August 2008 July 2008 June 2008 May 2008 April 2008 March 2008 February 2008 January 2008 December 2007 November 2007 October 2007 September 2007 August 2007 July 2007 June 2007 May 2007 March 2007 Blogroll Active Trading ETFâ??s Alfidi Capital Barry Ritholtzâ??s The Big Picture BBC News BCA Research BlogNetNews Bloomberg.com Brett Steenbargerâ??s TraderFeed Calculated Risk Chart of the Day CNN Money CNN.com Coins Daily Reckoning Forum David Fuller DealBreaker Dismal Scientist Doug Casey EconomPic Data Emerging Index ETF trends ETFs â?? Wall Street Sector Selector Financial Armageddon Financial Web Forbes Fortune Free credit score FT Alphaville Global property database Global Property Guide GoldSeek Green Stocks Greenlight Advisor Howard Lindzon Investment Advice itrade4real.com Jeremy Granthamâ??s GMO Jim Sinclairâ??s MineSet John Bougearelâ??s Trading Tips John Hussman John Mauldin King World News Kitco MarketBeat MarketWatch Michael Nystromâ??s Bull (Not Bull) Minyanville Naked Capitalism News N Economics Nouriel Roubini Online Stock Brokers Option Writer Payday loans PIMCO Plexus Asset Management QFINANCE Random Rogerâ??s Big Picture Real Clear Markets Richard Russellâ??s Dow Theory Letters Richard Wilsonâ??s Hedge Fund Blog Robin Hood Trader RunToGold SafeHaven Scottâ??s Investments Seeking Alpha Self Investors SmartMoney.com Stock Trading Stock Trading Ideas Stock Trading System â?? Fusion IQ Stock Trading to Go StockCharts.com StockWeb Telegraph The Economist The Financial Times The Kirk Report The Market Oracle The Motley Fool The New York Times The Wall Street Journal Online The Washington Post The Washington Times TheStreet.com Times Online Top Foreign Stocks Trading Software Wall St Cheat Sheet WallStraits WallStreetBear WallStreetWindow Stock Trading Wallstrip.Com Wangâ??s Happy Trading WordPress.com World Gold Council Yahoo Finance Follow These Too Amazon.com Widgets Recent Readers Powered by BlogCatalog
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