Fear Is the Rational Buyer's Best Friend

This blog post originally appeared on RealMoney Silver on May 20 at 7:33 a.m. EDT.

What is even more surprising is that many of the aforementioned observers and practitioners are so certain in their views. (I wonder at the certainty in an uncertain world, but that is a topic for an entirely different conversation!) This sort of glibness was in place by some of the same people when the S&P 500 recently rose above 1,200, but at that time, they were nearly all bullish. The negativity of groupthink that exists today was best displayed last night on "Fast Money," when one of the commentators (a friend of mine) even apologized for being bullish! I know most of the negatives -- I have been writing about the nontradtional headwinds for several months. High on my list has been the long tail and aftershock of a cycle characterized by the egregious use of debt and credit. Dubai, Greece, Spain and Portugal are the residue of that cycle, but it is also likely the end, not the beginning, of the consequences. The IMF/E.U. financing packages aimed at stemming the contagion are bold, and they have been treated as negatively as the Federal Reserve and Treasury's programs to stem the carnage in the U.S. banking industry and the swift 2008 downturn in the domestic economy. Moreover, the associated austerity measures over there, if enacted, would likely improve the intermediate-term outlook for the affected economies and capital markets. Also on my list is populist policy (leading to generally increased regulation such as bank and financial reform and higher taxes), which is an outgrowth of a public outcry that reflects the perception of a growing schism between the haves and the have-nots. It, too, is growth-deflating. But, that policy and its ramifications are well known and, quite possibly, serve the public good in the long run.   Loading Comments...   1 2 Last » Next â?º

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