Dicey Calculus of Where Stocks Go From Here

"We continue to recall that the period immediately post the establishment of TARP was not a period of upside and celebration but rather a period of downside on uncertainty as to what effect TARP and stimulus would have on the economy and the markets," wrote Stoltzfus in a Friday note to clients. "Repricing of asset classes into a market correction has never been a comfortable experience. Inevitably, however, from the rearview mirror of history, such a scenario is riddled with opportunities, not just risk." Although European debt fears are likely overblown, recent U.S. economic data and tepid corporate outlooks could be undermining analysts' forward earnings estimates, says DailyFinance financial writer Vishesh Kumar, throwing year-end price targets into question. "The situation in Europe is sort of the sword of Damocles's hanging over the market right now," Kumar says. "But U.S. leading indicators are pointing down for the first time since 2009, jobless claims are still up there and companies like Cisco (CSCO) and Lowe's (LOW) didn't have the guidance that analysts were expecting." That's why traders are struggling to determine whether the market might have gotten ahead of itself -- not just in light of what's happening overseas but also here at home. Tagged: Dow, Investing, stock market, stocks Print Email This .topText { display:block; } Dan Burrows View all Articles » Senior Writer

Dan Burrows is a senior writer for DailyFinance. He spent five years at Dow Jones. Most recently he covered investing, markets, tech stocks and the economy at SmartMoney.com. Prior to that he was a reporter at MarketWatch.com. He also covered retail and manufacturing at Women's Wear Daily for three years. In his career, he's had writing stints at Time Inc.'s FYI and Spy magazines, and has freelanced for Esquire and Maxim, among other publications.

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COMMENTS ( 14 ) Page 1 of 2 1 2 Next >> + Add Comment     Sort By Newest First Threaded Highest Rated Oldest First Newest First Ultraz2 2:04AM May 22 2010  WALLSTREET doesn't need calculus to determine where the DOW is going. All wallstreet needs to do is report the truth. The USA is in a super recession and the DOW should be at about 3500 to 4500 right now. And thats based on our current recession without bringing international bad news into the mix.   Reply Rate This Comment (0 RATINGS) Sarah56123 12:06AM May 22 2010  Another reason for me to not have offered what was expected:)   Reply Rate This Comment (0 RATINGS) Sarah56123 12:04AM May 22 2010  I wonder how many people were buying stock before women started working. As I recall, the ones who had it in the past before women worked were given it by their employer.   Reply Rate This Comment (0 RATINGS) SeanLean 11:00PM May 21 2010  The Amazing Adventures of the Ponsi on the Potomac Kommission !!!!....................."¦"¦"¦"¦"¦in misaligned 3D by MyopiaVisionYou've read the book, NOW see the blockbuster movie!Thrill! As the national debt skyrockets past the absurdosphere and into unknown astronomical dimensions!Cheer! As the Kommission spends MORE money in a few short years than ALL administrations have spent in the past 200 years!Weep! As the Kommission runs out of money!Gasp! As the Kommission just prints more and more money and spends it all before the ink is dry!Shudder! As the Kommission does absolutely nothing about unemployment, the economy, national security, energy, crime, and dozens of important issues!Starring: "¦"¦"¦"¦"¦Alfred E. Neuman as Prez Obozo"¦"¦"¦"¦"¦Phyllis Diller as VPrez Biden"¦"¦"¦"¦"¦Elmer Fudd as Barney Frank"¦"¦"¦"¦"¦The Wicked Witch of the East as Nancy Pelosi"¦"¦"¦"¦"¦Skeletor as Arlen Specter"¦"¦"¦"¦"¦Pinocchio as Chris Dodd "¦"¦"¦"¦"¦and a cast of thousands!!!Don't delay! "¦"¦..See it today!.   Reply Rate This Comment (1 RATINGS) MiserblOF 8:46PM May 21 2010  BUT IT IS TRUE!LOL aol is censoring through the looking glass.   Reply Rate This Comment (0 RATINGS) MiserblOF 8:46PM May 21 2010  B*U*********** got censored.. yep, "********.."   Reply Rate This Comment (0 RATINGS) MiserblOF 8:45PM May 21 2010  ******** true. You don't make money unless you buy when others are selling and sell when others are buying. But these are also the times of most risk.. Nobody KNOWS if we are in a great buying opportunity right now or a potential patch of quicksand. Some people will make money out of it, one way or the other, and if they are smart, will thank the heavens.. if they're just lucky, they'll, of course, claim they were smart..   Reply Rate This Comment (1 RATINGS) BDYFTNS 8:34PM May 21 2010  JBLUHM wrote...'There are great risks in the markets and great opportunity." Way to stick your neck out. lol.   Reply Rate This Comment (1 RATINGS) ERink91321 8:28PM May 21 2010  I have been informed that what happened today was Government institutions flooding the markets with IOus, late this afternoon, as other investors were pulling out. Also, there is much talk of Financial Reform Laws lifting the markets. That is Premature thinking. The Law does not take effect untill after July and there Will be Many Challanges to it before then. It will Not look the same as it does now   Reply Rate This Comment (0 RATINGS) JBLUHM1951 7:51PM May 21 2010  /There is great risk in the markets and great opportunity. Once countries realize they cannot keep spending and expanding government the economies will improve, at least for awhile. Soon or later many countries will have severe problems. There are too many who want something for nothing and feel someone else should give them what they want.   Reply Rate This Comment (2 RATINGS) Page 1 of 2 1 2 Next >> GOT SOMETHING TO SAY? YOU'LL BE ASKED TO REGISTER OR SIGN IN BEFORE POSTING A COMMENT. Make a Comment Comment Type your comment here Reset Cancel Next:confirm Post Reply! Can't see this image?   Recent QuotesWatchlistMy Portfolios My PortfoliosCreate a New Portfolio var watchlist; var AOL_QuotesWatchList; var elemStks; var addText = "Enter symbol(s) seperated by commas"; var goodSymbol = 1; var userAdding = 0; var watchlistMAX = 100; var maxReached = 0;var elemNum = -1; var previousElemNum = -1; var portURL = 'http://portal.pf.aol.com/jsonmfus/ws?service=symslist,markets&exchange=USA&symbols='; var recentqURL = 'http://portal.pf.aol.com/jsonmfus/ws?service=symslist&exchange=USA&symbols='; var newsMAX = 5; var strRecentQuotes = ""; rqSyms = buildString(""); if(rqSyms.length > 0)allSyms += rqSyms + ','; var defSymErr = "";var symbolErr="One or more symbols you entered is not available. 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