Updating My List of Surprises for 2010

This blog post originally appeared on RealMoney Silver on May 24 at 8:43 a.m. EDT.

-- Friedrich Nietzsche We are now almost five months through 2010, and those past five months, similar to the 12 months prior that preceded them, have been one of the most tumultuous periods in financial history. Recently, the pleasure in place for the first four months of the year has been supplanted by pain and uncertainty. What does the balance of 2010 hold? How do we profit? For some possible answers, it's time to grade and update my 2010 surprise list. "I'm astounded by people who want to 'know' the universe when it's hard enough to find your way around Chinatown." -- Woody Allen For those new to TheStreet, a little background. In late December over the past seven years, I have taken a page from former Morgan Stanley strategist Byron Wien, who is now Vice Chairman of Blackstone Advisory Services, and prepared a list of possible surprises for the coming year. (Byron had a very successful 2009 surprise list. Here is his 2010 surprise list.) My surprise list is not intended to consist of predictions but rather events that have a reasonable chance of occurring despite the general perception that the odds are very long. I call these "possible improbable" events. The real purpose of this endeavor is to consider positioning a portion of my portfolio in accordance with outlier events, with the potential for large payoffs, and to disprove Nietzsche, who said that we live the same life over and over again. Wall Street research is still very much conventional, almost universally bullish and consisting of nonvariant "groupthink" despite the attempts of reform over the past several years. Mainstream and consensus expectations are just that, and, in most cases, they are deeply embedded into today's stock prices. If I succeed in at least making you think about outlier events, then the exercise has been worthwhile. Too often we are played as suckers as we just accept the trend, momentum and/or the superficial as certain truth without a shred of criticism. As a society (and as investors), we are consistently bamboozled by appearance and consensus. Just look at those who bought into the success of Enron, the financial supermarket concept at Citigroup (C), the uninterrupted profit growth at Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE), housing's new paradigm of noncyclical growth and ever-rising home prices in the early to mid 2000s, Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction, the heroic home-run production of steroid-laced Major League Baseball players Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire, the uncompromising principles of New York Governor Elliott Spitzer, the morality of our politicians (e.g., John Edwards, John Ensign and Larry Craig), the consistency of Bernie Madoff's investment returns (and those of other hucksters) and the clean-cut image of Tiger Woods.   Loading Comments...   1 2 Last » Next ›

SHARE:

Featured Photo Galleries Go to Slideshow Archive Business News From The Web Asian Stocks Drop to Lowest Since July on Korea Tension, Europe BusinessWeek Online Obama administration asks judge to dismiss Virginia suit against health-care law Washington Post Europe's markets suffer new falls BBC Microsoft Plans New Shake-Up The Wall Street Journal. Europe's Banks Hit by Loan Costs The Wall Street Journal. U.S. oil drilling regulator ignored experts' red flags on environmental risks Washington Post New death at China iPhone plant BBC Transocean Finds Itself Caught in the Spotlight New York Times Wall Street Slips Lower and Euro Weakens New York Times DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increase in March Calculated Risk More Headlines TheStreet Premium Services Compare All Services Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS: Now any level of investor can trade right alongside a Wall Street pro — and enjoy 24/7 access to his portfolio! Learn More Login NEW! Don Dion's ETF Action: A concise two-step strategy for learning and trading in this increasingly lucrative area of investing. For all levels of investors! Learn More Login RealMoney: Jim Cramer's team of 70+ investment pros offer a daily wealth of fast-breaking market news... analyses... red-hot opportunities...and wealth-building strategies. Learn More Login RealMoney Silver: The genius of Doug Kass + 5 Premium Services = an unrivaled group of expert fundamental analysts, technical analysts, and Wall Street observers. Learn More Login Breakout Stocks: Bryan Ashenberg combines sophisticated screening software with eagle-eye analysis to find small and mid-caps ready to break out! Learn More Login Market Movers Deep in the Money Calls Stocks Under $10 Top Gun Trader TheStreet Ratings Daily Swing Trade Top Stocks ETF Shark Alerts Options Alerts try { function DM_onSegsAvailable(segs, cust_id) { for(var i=0;i Dow Jones S&P 500 NASDAQ 10-Year Note 9918.82 1053.54 2178.93 31.36 Oil * 69.35 DOWN -147.75 DOWN -20.11 DOWN -34.62 DOWN -0.91 10 Yr 3.14% SPDR Gold 117.02 -1.47% -1.87% -1.56% -2.82% Data delayed 20 minutes More From TheStreet & Around The Web TheStreet Ratings: Top Rated Stocks Cramer's Latest Picks from Mad Money var randnum = Math.floor(Math.random() * 100) if (randnum < 51) { document.write("TheStreet Dividend Calendar"); } else { document.write("NEW: Earnings Call Transcripts"); } var randnum = Math.floor(Math.random() * 100) if (randnum < 51) { document.write("Top-rated ETFs from TheStreet Ratings"); } else { document.write("Top-rated Mutual Funds from TheStreet Ratings"); } var randnum = Math.floor(Math.random() * 100) if (randnum < 34) { document.write("NEW: Earnings & Economic Calendar"); } else if (randnum > 34 && randnum < 67) { document.write("Expanded Coverage: Energy"); } else { document.write("ETF Research Center"); } CEO Interviews and Videos from Fox Business Twitter Facebook RSS Mobile App adsonar_placementId=1341369;adsonar_pid=879768;adsonar_ps=-1;adsonar_zw=320;adsonar_zh=280;adsonar_jv='ads.adsonar.com'; Brokerage Partners YAHOO.util.Event.on(window,"load",function(){ setTimeout(function(){ TSCM.util.attachScript('scr_intellitxt','http://thestreet.us.intellitxt.com/intellitxt/front.asp?ipid=10685'); },1200); }); Sponsored Links var ads = [ { link:"http://www.entrepreneur.com/business-opportunities/index.html?cam=thestreet&cid=Homepagetextlink1109", text:"Be Your Own Boss and Start your Own Business Today!", trk:null }, { link:"http://ad.doubleclick.net/clk;222470237;4639705;g?http://www.dionmm.com/sl/py/sitets2.py?adsrc=201037", text:"Special Report: Don Dion's Ultimate Inflation Protection Guide", trk:null }, { link:"http://ad.doubleclick.net/clk;222470367;4639705;k?http://www.dionmm.com/sl/py/sitets2.py?adsrc=201038", text:"Protect Yourself from Inflation with Don Dion's Special Report", trk:null }, { link:"http://ad.doubleclick.net/clk;223806605;47528270;g?http://www.optionshouse.com/landing/stocks295/?partner=street&utm_source=street&utm_medium=paid-banner-ads&utm_campaign=textlinks&utm_content=bash-s295-text", text:"$2.95 Flat-Rate Stock Trades @ OptionsHouse.com. Save Now.", trk:'http://ad.doubleclick.net/ad/N6067.272508.7329112262621/B4413938.11;sz=1x1' }, { link:"http://ad.doubleclick.net/clk;223239025;46977159;p", text:"Trade free for 30 days at TD AMERITRADE.", trk:null }, { link:"http://ad.doubleclick.net/clk;223806605;47528270;g?http://www.optionshouse.com/landing/stocks295/?partner=street&utm_source=street&utm_medium=paid-banner-ads&utm_campaign=textlinks&utm_content=bash-s295-text", text:"Why Pay More? $2.95 Flat-Rate Stock Trades @ OptionsHouse.", trk:'http://ad.doubleclick.net/ad/N6067.272508.7329112262621/B4413938.11;sz=1x1' }, { link:"http://clk.atdmt.com/NYC/go/236925337/direct/01/", text:"Low cost and active management - T. Rowe Price mutual funds", trk:'http://view.atdmt.com/NYC/view/236925337/direct/01/' }, { link:"http://ad.doubleclick.net/clk;223830723;47553663;i", text:"Zurich HelpPoint Delivered. Better understand your company's risks.", trk:'http://ad.doubleclick.net/ad/N3867.TheStreet/B4417177.8;sz=1x1' }, { link:"http://ad.doubleclick.net/clk;222255324;45405692;b?http://www.realtor.com/?source=a28344", text:"4M listings. Comprehensive & current. Search now on Realtor.com", trk:null }, { link:"http://ad.doubleclick.net/clk;225177761;48250867;r", text:"Get some of our latest thinking on estate planning at ustrust.com", trk:null }, { link:"http://ad.doubleclick.net/clk;223804138;45405692;f?http://www.wisdomtree.com/bannerads/hedj/hedjlp.html?utm_source=TheStreet&utm_medium=banner&utm_content=hedjtextST&utm_campaign=hedj", text:"HEDJ: International Equity with Currency Hedged", trk:null }, { link:"http://ad.doubleclick.net/click;h=v2|3C75|0|0|%2a|r;220770099;0-0;0;44407284;31-1|1;35979936|35997814|1;;%3fhttps://us.etrade.com/e/t/jumppage/viewjumppage?PageName=power_et_for_active_traders_mvt&SC=S034301&ch_id=D&s_id=STRT&c_id=60DAYBT&o_id=60DAY", text:"Trade Free for 60 Days. E*TRADE Securities.", trk:'http://ad.doubleclick.net/imp;v1;f;220770099;0-0;0;44407284;1|1;35979936|35997814|1;;cs=r%3fhttp://ad.doubleclick.net/dot.gif?' }, { link:"http://ad.doubleclick.net/clk;223713956;47431952;m?http://www.optionsxpress.com/promos/virtualtrade.aspx?cmpid=tlSTRcopyA", text:"Practice No Risk Trading at optionsXpress", trk:null }, { link:"http://bs.serving-sys.com/BurstingPipe/adServer.bs?cn=tf&c=20&mc=click&pli=1465018&PluID=0&ord=%n", text:"CoreLogic: Business Info, Analytics & Outsourcing Leader.", trk:'http://bs.serving-sys.com/BurstingPipe/adServer.bs?cn=tf&c=19&mc=imp&pli=1465018&PluID=0&ord=%n&rtu=-1' }, { link:"http://ad.doubleclick.net/clk;220815082;44534915;c?http://www.lvcva.com/campaigns?src=4130", text:"Las Vegas is serious about business. VegasMeansBusiness.com.", trk:'http://ad.doubleclick.net/ad/N5664.272508.7284099241621/B4167122.6;sz=1x1' } ]; function __trackingpixel(url){ var ord = Math.floor(Math.random() * 100000000000); if(typeof url != "undefined") { if(url.indexOf('[timestamp]')!= -1) { url = url.replace("[timestamp]", ord); } return ""; } } var counter=-1; var limit = 3; function __write_textlink() { counter++; if(counter >= limit)return; var index = Math.floor(Math.random() * ads.length * 10 % ads.length); var it = ads.splice(index,1); var o = it[0]; document.write(''); document.write( o.text ); document.write( '' ); if(o.trk != null){ document.write(__trackingpixel(o.trk)); } if(ads.length > 0) { __write_textlink(); } else { } }; __write_textlink(); TheStreet Premium Services All Services Action Alerts PLUS Get free access to Cramer's portfolio picks at Action Alerts PLUS - Try it now Free RealMoney Jim Cramer's RealMoney team of 70+ Wall Street pros will give you wealth-building strategies - Get started Free RealMoney Silver Doug Kass + our 5 Premium Services - all in one place - Get a free 14-day trial today Stocks Under $10 David Peltier is ready to help you find affordable Stocks Under $10 which could lead to a big-money payoff - Get access to his portfolio FREE ETF Action Don Dion's brand new service can help investors at all levels build profitable ETF portfolios - Learn more document.write(unescape("%3Cscript src='" + (document.location.protocol == "https:" ? "https://sb" : "http://b") + ".scorecardresearch.com/beacon.js' %3E%3C/script%3E")); var beaconurl=""; if(TSC.util.isDefined(document)){ beaconurl=document.URL; try{ if (top.location != self.location){ beaconurl=document.referrer; } }catch(e){} } COMSCORE.beacon({ c1:2, c2:"6036014", c3:"", c4:beaconurl, c5:"", c6:"", c15:"" }); var pvar = { cid: "us-thestreet", content: "tsc", server: "secure-us" }; var trac = nol_t(pvar); trac.record().post(); Free Newsletters from TheStreet

After the Bell

Before the Bell

Booyah! Newsletter

ETF Daily

Midday Bell

TSC Top Ten Stories Newsletter

Winners & Losers

We respect your privacy. Manage Newsletters Podcasts [Select Podcast] Small Business Podcast The Real Story Wall Street Confidential Podcast Daily RSS Updates

TheStreet Mobile Edition

Connect with TheStreet

YAHOO.util.Event.on(window,"load",function() { try { var loginlink = YAHOO.util.Dom.get("logonoff"); var cookie = new UserStatus().streetCookie; if(cookie.indexOf('|')== -1){ loginlink.setAttribute("href",""); loginlink.innerHTML = "Log In"; } } catch(e) {} }); The Street Corporate | Home | About Us | Advertise | Customer Service | Employment | Privacy Policy | Sitemap | Topic Archive | Terms of Use document.write('

© 1996-2010 TheStreet.com, Inc. All rights reserved.TheStreet.com's enterprise databases running Oracle are professionally monitored and managed by Pythian Remote DBA.

Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes for all exchanges. Market Data provided by Interactive Data. Company fundamental data provided by Morningstar. Earnings and ratings provided by Zacks. Mutual fund data provided by Valueline. ETF data provided by Lipper. Terms & Conditions. Powered and implemented by Interactive Data Managed Solutions.

TheStreet Ratings updates stock ratings daily. However, if no rating change occurs, the data on this page does not update. The data does update after 90 days if no rating change occurs within that time period.

IDC calculates the Market Cap for the basic symbol to include common shares only. Year-to-date mutual fund returns are calculated on a monthly basis by Value Line and posted mid-month.

*Oil Data in Market Overview is Brent Crude Pricing

'); TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.sz = "728x90"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.resetTargets(); TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.calltype = "adj"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.includeDcopt = true; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.additionalTargeting = ";;storytype=marketfeatures;kval=marketfeatures"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.writeTag(); TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.sz = "233x224"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.resetTargets(); TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.calltype = "adj"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.adtype = "cau"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.additionalTargeting = ";;storytype=marketfeatures;kval=marketfeatures"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.writeTag(); TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.sz = "336x280,336x850,300x250,468x648"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.resetTargets(); TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.calltype = "adj"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.additionalTargeting = ";;storytype=marketfeatures;kval=marketfeatures;;storytype=marketfeatures;kval=marketfeatures"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.writeTag(); TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.sz="336x280,300x250"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.resetTargets(); TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.setSite("remnant.thestreet.com"); TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.additionalTargeting=";box=second"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.calltype="adj"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.writeTag(); /** * function wrapper that places all DART ads using TSCM.ads.positionToPlaceholder * if positionToPlaceholder can't find the elements specified, it just returns and is ready for the next call */ TSCM.ads.placeLazyLoadingAds = function() { // DART 1 (banner) TSCM.ads.positionToPlaceholder({ ad: 'ad728x90', placeholder: 'bannerContainer', flexibleHeight: false }); //DART 2 TSCM.ads.positionToPlaceholder({ ad: 'customUnit', placeholder: 'cauContainer', flexibleHeight: true }); //DART 3 TSCM.ads.positionToPlaceholder({ ad: 'boxAd', placeholder: 'boxAdContainer', flexibleHeight: true }); //DART 4 TSCM.ads.positionToPlaceholder({ ad: 'secondBoxAd', placeholder: 'secondBoxAdContainer', flexibleHeight: false }); }; TSCM.ads.placeLazyLoadingAds() window.setTimeout(function() { TSCM.ads.placeLazyLoadingAds() }, 2000); window.onresize = function() { setTimeout(function() { TSCM.ads.placeLazyLoadingAds(); }, 1000); }; BF_BB_DATA = null; (function( ){ document.write(''); var sid="76IOF7"; var c=""; var b=""; BF_BB_SCRIPT=document.createElement('script'); BF_BB_SCRIPT.type="text/javascript"; BF_BB_SRC="http://buzzbox.buzzfeed.com/wd/BuzzBox?sid=" + sid + c + b + '&it=1&cb=' + (new Date()).getTime(); setTimeout(function() { document.getElementById('BF_BUZZBOX').appendChild(BF_BB_SCRIPT); BF_BB_SCRIPT.src=BF_BB_SRC; },1); })();

Before the Bell

Booyah! Newsletter

ETF Daily

Midday Bell

TSC Top Ten Stories Newsletter

Winners & Losers

TheStreet Mobile Edition

Connect with TheStreet

Read Full Article »