Pre-Refuting William Galston

Paul Krugman Conscience of a Liberal June 1, 2010

So William Galston has an article in the New Republic questioning Keynes — and me. He lays great stress on the Reinhart-Rogoff claim that growth slows substantially when debt exceeds 90 percent of GDP.

First of all, that’s not in the Reinhart-Rogoff magnum opus. It’s in a later working paper, which is not nearly of the same standard.

And when Galston writes,

Until someone refutes Reinhardt and Rogoff, our operating presumption must be that excessive debt accumulation will eventually reduce economic growth

I sort of wonder at the absence of a link to my blog post in which I, well, refuted Reinhart and Rogoff. OK, that post was very recent — but it’s not the first time I wrote about this issue; see here.

I don’t want to be too cranky here, but if you’re going to cite me in the title of an article, and accuse me of not having an answer to what someone else wrote, shouldn’t you do a search to see whether I have, in fact, said anything about it?

Anyway, the punchline:

I'm a great admirer of the Reinhart-Rogoff work on crises "” but NOT of their work claiming that 90 percent debt/GDP ratios constitute a red line, which isn't at all up to the standard of the other material. It's based on a crude correlation "” and as soon as you look at specific examples, it starts to look all wrong.

The details are at the links.

So as the title of this post implies, I believe I pre-refuted Galston. Oh, and before commenting on Japan, one has to read Adam Posen (pdf).

That’s all for now; I’m hiking in an undisclosed location (the biking comes later).

Paul Krugman is an Op-Ed columnist for The New York Times.

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June 01

Pre-refuting William Galston

Debt and growth? Been there, done that.

May 28 //

Martin Wolf Is Not A Serious Person

And neither am I.

May 27 //

Bad Analysis At The Deficit Commission

Facts that, you know, aren't true.

May 27 //

Conventional Madness

Hey, let's choke off recovery -- some people think there might be inflation, so even though there isn't, they must be appeased.

May 26 //

I, Rabat

Going away for a bit.

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Debt and growth? Been there, done that.

May 28

Martin Wolf Is Not A Serious Person

And neither am I.

May 27 //

Bad Analysis At The Deficit Commission

Facts that, you know, aren't true.

May 27 //

Conventional Madness

Hey, let's choke off recovery -- some people think there might be inflation, so even though there isn't, they must be appeased.

May 26 //

I, Rabat

Going away for a bit.

From the Opinion Blogs Freakonomics Appeals and Alcohol – Can We Be Persuaded to Drink Less?

What convinces people to not drive drunk?

Nicholas D. Kristof Malaria: A Student's Firsthand Account

Kristine Silvestri, a recent graduate of Elon University in North Carolina, has written a post about contracting malaria while she was on a study abroad program in Ghana.

And neither am I.

May 27

Bad Analysis At The Deficit Commission

Facts that, you know, aren't true.

May 27 //

Conventional Madness

Hey, let's choke off recovery -- some people think there might be inflation, so even though there isn't, they must be appeased.

May 26 //

I, Rabat

Going away for a bit.

From the Opinion Blogs Freakonomics Appeals and Alcohol – Can We Be Persuaded to Drink Less?

What convinces people to not drive drunk?

Nicholas D. Kristof Malaria: A Student's Firsthand Account

Kristine Silvestri, a recent graduate of Elon University in North Carolina, has written a post about contracting malaria while she was on a study abroad program in Ghana.

Facts that, you know, aren't true.

May 27

Conventional Madness

Hey, let's choke off recovery -- some people think there might be inflation, so even though there isn't, they must be appeased.

May 26 //

I, Rabat

Going away for a bit.

From the Opinion Blogs Freakonomics Appeals and Alcohol – Can We Be Persuaded to Drink Less?

What convinces people to not drive drunk?

Nicholas D. Kristof Malaria: A Student's Firsthand Account

Kristine Silvestri, a recent graduate of Elon University in North Carolina, has written a post about contracting malaria while she was on a study abroad program in Ghana.

Hey, let's choke off recovery -- some people think there might be inflation, so even though there isn't, they must be appeased.

May 26

I, Rabat

Going away for a bit.

From the Opinion Blogs Freakonomics Appeals and Alcohol – Can We Be Persuaded to Drink Less?

What convinces people to not drive drunk?

Nicholas D. Kristof Malaria: A Student's Firsthand Account

Kristine Silvestri, a recent graduate of Elon University in North Carolina, has written a post about contracting malaria while she was on a study abroad program in Ghana.

Going away for a bit.

What convinces people to not drive drunk?

Kristine Silvestri, a recent graduate of Elon University in North Carolina, has written a post about contracting malaria while she was on a study abroad program in Ghana.

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Pre-Refuting William Galston

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