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Economist Mark Thoma wrote a fine piece wondering where the good jobs will come from in the future.
It's a great question.
As many Americans struggle to find a job - any job - Thoma correctly notes that just getting a paycheck is important right now. But he adds that ultimately it is the quality of the job that matters more in the long run to families' and the overall economy's economic prospects. Thoma writes:
But in the long-run the quality of jobs matters a lot, and when the private sector finally begins reabsorbing the unemployed, the underemployed, and the discouraged, we want people to be able to find jobs with decent wages and benefits -- jobs that are as good or better than the jobs they had before.
From my perch the trend toward higher quality jobs is not good. It is difficult to envision what the next big growth sector will be. Perhaps another way to express it is: what will be the next IT?
Consider that twenty years ago information technology was a relatively small, specialized field of tech wonks. If you told someone you worked in 'network support' most wouldn't have a clue what you were talking about. Now it's likely that every one of us knows at least a few people working with computers, networks, mobile technology or related industries. This sector, tiny two decades ago, is now one of the largest employers in America and all with well-paid and relatively secure positions.
So what is the next boom industry that will provide jobs to not only the currently unemployed, but also the million-plus new people entering the American economy every year? Another good question.
In my view, the only industry I can see with any significant new employment upside is alternative energy. America must use our existing manufacturing infrastruture to become the world leader in solar cells, wind turbines and other new technologies. There are factories across the midwest that can repurposed fairly easily, near transportation hubs and with a trained labor base. It is foolish to believe auto manufacturing will recover enough in Michigan and Ohio to rehire all those who have lost their jobs. Jobs building new energy technologies would be skilled, well-paid and with benefits. Of course, the near-term problem is that we are already behind the curve in this growing industry. For our entire economy's sake we must ramp it up. This is not about climate change or a carbon tax; it's about jobs. Good jobs.
As bad though as the overall job market is, let's not pretend there aren't jobs available. Employability, however, often comes down to education. Thoma adds:
Education is part of it, better education means better jobs on average, and it's easy to imagine a substantial fraction of the population benefiting from an educational advantage.
He's right again.
Attending the Google Developer and All Things D conferences in California recently was eye-opening. Nearly every single company at these events was hiring aggressively. For example, Samsung Mobile has 100 people at a facility in Silicon Valley and is looking to hire another 50. A 50% jump in employment! The problem, a Samsung manager told me, is that they simply cannot find enough qualified people to fill the slots. Other companies at the conferences told me a similar story. What other industries can say that these days?
So why can't these tech companies find enough qualified workers? A poorly trained labor base is likely a big reason. How many kids are taking software programming as part of a core high school curriculum? It's worse when one considers that every year more than 1 million teenagers drop out of high school. Literacy rates are falling in many places. Money is thrown at schools and results often fall, all while many good jobs go unfilled. Skills simply aren't matching job demand.
Thoma's point is very well taken. If the economy begins to turn, private sector job growth will pick up. But if those jobs are increasingly low pay, unskilled positions it will be difficult for the country to make meaningful strides in overall growth, the repayment of our huge debts and the closing the growing wealth gap.
This disconnect will not be solved by educators alone. No matter how much money is tossed at a school or teachers, ultimately it is up to the kids and the parents to perform and recongize the skills they need to compete in a modern economy. That said, the private sector can do a better job (or any job) of coordinating with schools to make sure kids have the skills that are in demand. Education needs to be as fluid as the job market. In other words, the task of good job creation falls to us all. Public sector, private sector and the workers and students themselves all must figure out a way to match demand with skills. That won't be easy. Programming software takes much more education and effort to learn than manual labor. But unless all America antes up and kicks in, employment and our economy may suffer through many more years of unperformance and a growing socioeconomic gap.
Put another way: skilled jobs are out there. Supply of skilled workers isn't meeting demand, however. So we really have three choices. We can can either 1) import the workers to fill the slots, 2) export jobs out of the country, or 3) make sure our workers have the skills to get hired in the new technologies and industries that will provide the growth decades from now. It may take some time to get there, but I like the third option best.
Brian Sullivan joined FOX Business Network (FBN) in April 2008 as an anchor. He co-anchors the 10am-12pm ET hours of the FOX Business block. Prior to joining FBN, Sullivan served as an anchor for Bloomberg Television where he hosted the programs Morning Call and In Focus.
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