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Craig Stephen's This Week in China
June 27, 2010, 8:19 p.m. EDT · Recommend · Post:
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By Craig Stephen
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Much of the initial excitement about China ending its de-facto peg to the dollar has worn off, leaving time for more sober reflection of what will happen and how quickly. Perhaps not too much effect will be felt immediately, but it's where China is heading that gets interesting.
We have clearly witnessed a certain amount of tactical public relations by Beijing in the run-up to this weekend's summit of the Group of 20 major economies. On cue, the People's Bank of China even allowed the yuan, or renminbi, to edge up 0.3% on Friday to a recent high against the dollar.
Thousands of demonstrators gather in Taiwan to protest a landmark free-trade deal with China, fearing cheap Chinese goods could flood Taiwan's market. Video Courtesy of Reuters.
In fact, broker CLSA suggests Beijing's efforts have helped delay a U.S.-China trade war, although unlikely for long. They also forecast a 5% annualized increase in the renminbi against the dollar, hardly ground shaking. That looks in line with the 16% appreciation in the currency against the dollar from 2005 until it was again pegged to the greenback.
But it could be a mistake to expect a replay, as that previous case was during a period of sustained dollar weakness against major currencies. The new renminbi managed float is to a basket of currencies, including the euro, against which the renminbi has already been strengthening.
Other analysts were also quick to put last week's move in context. HSBC Research doesn't expect any meaningful appreciation of the renminbi, arguing the move is all about increasing flexibility and internationalization of the currency.
Among initiatives that allow greater two-way currency flow, increasing renminbi settlements and the launch of a foreign-company board in Shanghai are expected to speed up in tandem with the currency-peg adjustments.
At the same time, it is also worth considering what will not happen quickly: That is, full currency convertibility for the renminbi or it making much headway towards being a reserve currency.
Considering Beijing's recent efforts to tighten the state's grip on the economy, from centrally directed loan quotas for banks, price controls and increasing favoritism toward state-owned industries, it looks highly unlikely it will throw open the doors on its currency.
No more is China ready to have its 1.3 billion citizens traveling the world, than it is for them to freely invest their money where they want. Given China's limited and highly controlled domestic investment options, allowing its deposit base to slosh around the globe in search of higher returns could be reckless.
Indeed, Goldman Sachs says in a new economics report that full convertibility for China's currency is not even in its base-case scenario by 2020. Before that authorities face a herculean task of working through modernizing tax codes, regulation and financial infrastructure.
But still, the journey getting there entails some big changes as well as opportunities. Positioning for the internationalization of the renminbi is important, as we saw with events such as the aborted investor "through train" to Hong Kong.
Just as China can send a host of commodity markets into a spin, global currency and equity markets must be prepared for the eventual arrival of the renminbi.
One new development has been the expansion of renminbi trade settlements. Cross-border renminbi trade settlement is now allowed in all countries, after starting first in Hong Kong, Macau and members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. This brings with it a new issue -- where to park the renminbi?
A quickening pace in the development of offshore renminbi products is one area to watch. Foreign investors should find more options to gain exposure to renminbi with better returns. Hong Kong will be at the forefront here, says HSBC, and a mini Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) scheme is on the agenda, giving renminbi investors access to domestic China stocks.
The current A-share QFII Scheme is U.S.-dollar-based and has been limited to just $30 billion of foreign investment, or 0.5% of total A-share market cap.
Another much-anticipated move forward is the development of a foreign board on the Shanghai stock exchange. This can be another step towards internationalizing the renminbi. It should allow increased level of domestic investment so foreign companies can expand their China businesses without generating large currency inflows.
It also gives domestic investors access to foreign companies and soaks up liquidity, while at the same time retaining that all-important government control. HSBC, for one, has repeatedly stated its intention to list in Shanghai when rules allow.
Again, a foreign board is step towards full foreign participation in China's A-share market, which, like a fully convertible currency, could be a decade away.
Near term, don't expect much appreciation in the renminbi, but there should at least soon be more attractive renminbi savings products on offer.
Apple Inc. sold a staggering number of its latest iPhone, the iPhone 4, and its shares barely budged, writes Therese Poletti.
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